Author Topic: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll  (Read 231 times)

Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« on: 10 Jan 2019 7:33:59 PM »
The absolute simplest financial model would be to take the total available, and divide it by 30.

Advantages: extremely simple, fair for everyone

Disadvantages: doesn’t reflect reality, doesn’t reward success/effort
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Diamondbacks LL

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #1 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:06:47 PM »
See my post on other thread. All start the same, adjustments made yearly depending on record.

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #2 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:29:19 PM »
If we were doing a reset and full draft from scratch, I'm down for even payrolls.

Also, I love the idea of equality and sharing all the things... and would be willing to consider going down that path if well thought out and practical ways to get there are presented. But a simple put everybody at the same number right now, just doesn't work, in my opinion.

Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #3 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:33:40 PM »
To be clear,nothing will be changing for 2019. Any changes we may implement will be for 2020 forward.

Scot.
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Dodgers DS

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #4 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:36:28 PM »
I suspect you might have to reboot the league from scratch in order to pull off an equitable salary cap across the board.  At present, five teams have more that $300M in committed salary (including two small market teams, and one team an overall salary commitment beyond $463M).  None of those teams get full relief from that commitment until 2022 and one still will owe money currently under contract through 2027.

Basically, if folks want to go start a new league, go start one. 

Blue Jays SH

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #5 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:45:50 PM »
I suspect you might have to reboot the league from scratch in order to pull off an equitable salary cap across the board.  At present, five teams have more that $300M in committed salary (including two small market teams, and one team an overall salary commitment beyond $463M).  None of those teams get full relief from that commitment until 2022 and one still will owe money currently under contract through 2027.

Basically, if folks want to go start a new league, go start one.

We’re just defining the space of what the model should be; I don’t think comments like this are helpful.

If every team had a league average payroll, that number would be about $138M for 2019. There are only a handful of teams above that number right now; a one time contract amnesty allowing teams to void unwanted contracts would allow all of those teams to easily get below the cap. “Committed salary” doesn’t matter; what matters is annual payroll.

Scot.
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Marlins JM

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #6 on: 10 Jan 2019 9:01:54 PM »
The absolute simplest financial model would be to take the total available, and divide it by 30.

Advantages: extremely simple, fair for everyone

Disadvantages: doesn’t reflect reality, doesn’t reward success/effort


I'd be all for doing this to start, but then a simple but effective "reward" system , and penalty system going forward to be set in place....


Thats the more difficult piece.
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Dodgers DS

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #7 on: 10 Jan 2019 9:16:40 PM »
We’re just defining the space of what the model should be; I don’t think comments like this are helpful.

If every team had a league average payroll, that number would be about $138M for 2019. There are only a handful of teams above that number right now; a one time contract amnesty allowing teams to void unwanted contracts would allow all of those teams to easily get below the cap. “Committed salary” doesn’t matter; what matters is annual payroll.

Scot.

Our head counts don't align.  I see 14 team over that $138M average, and of those that aren't only 4 or 5 currently have full active rosters.  In other words, the number 14 is apt to go up.

If the league wants to go with $138M equitable budget so be it, but to do it in a manner where teams get a one-time opportunity to void existing budgets, a net result is that those with very low salary obligations have the change to pick up Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Joey Votto as discounted salaries and that doesn't seem all that equitable across the board.

When we began this league is was with the opportunity to start with a certain number of players on the MLB counterpart's roster, and from there build through free agency and the draft.  If we reinvent this system to the extreme as a flat salary cap, I suggest reinventing the entire system including all roster for all teams.  Then everyone has the chance to rebuild their franchise from the perspective of a more level playing field, which is what I think a flat cap is being proposed to do.
« Last Edit: 10 Jan 2019 9:18:28 PM by Dodgers DS »

Red Sox KN

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #8 on: 10 Jan 2019 9:41:03 PM »
I was motivated to stay in the league because of the time spent building the roster I have. If we are going to completely reset rosters that would be a demotivator.

I’d rather work on retooling the financial model so that it doesn’t have a built in penalty for a subset of teams.

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #9 on: 10 Jan 2019 9:47:37 PM »
Is it possible to calculate how many teams and how much core base salary has been slashed during the last 5 seasons?

Maybe we could “pay” those clubs reparations...

Also, does our current Financial Model need a complete overhaul or just eliminate the unexplainable “tweak” ratio?

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Blue Jays SH

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #10 on: 10 Jan 2019 10:01:46 PM »
We’re just defining the space of what the model should be; I don’t think comments like this are helpful.

If every team had a league average payroll, that number would be about $138M for 2019. There are only a handful of teams above that number right now; a one time contract amnesty allowing teams to void unwanted contracts would allow all of those teams to easily get below the cap. “Committed salary” doesn’t matter; what matters is annual payroll.

Scot.

Our head counts don't align.  I see 14 team over that $138M average, and of those that aren't only 4 or 5 currently have full active rosters.  In other words, the number 14 is apt to go up.

If the league wants to go with $138M equitable budget so be it, but to do it in a manner where teams get a one-time opportunity to void existing budgets, a net result is that those with very low salary obligations have the change to pick up Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Joey Votto as discounted salaries and that doesn't seem all that equitable across the board.

When we began this league is was with the opportunity to start with a certain number of players on the MLB counterpart's roster, and from there build through free agency and the draft.  If we reinvent this system to the extreme as a flat salary cap, I suggest reinventing the entire system including all roster for all teams.  Then everyone has the chance to rebuild their franchise from the perspective of a more level playing field, which is what I think a flat cap is being proposed to do.

There are currently 4 teams with 2018 salary obligations of $138M or higher: BAL, NYY, CHN, and ARI. No other team is close enough that fielding a 25 man roster would cause them to go over the limit. And note that this is before all arbitration salaries and options are dealt with, which could lower the salaries even more, creating even more room.

All 4 of those teams could easily cut dead weight to get below $138M: Miguel Cabrera for the Red Sox; Josh Fields could do it for the Yankees, who might also want to get out from the Beltre, Cozart, or Tanaka contracts; Brian Duensing and Howie Kendrick for the Cubs (who are probably going to decline Kole Calhoun’s arbitration Sakarya in the first place, which gets them most of the way to $138M anyway); Albert Pujols and Rich Hill and maybe Marco Estrada for the DBacks. So there wouldn’t be a widespread fire sale of superstars hitting the market; claiming so is a total red herring, and not actually contributing to the discussion.

Scot.
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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #11 on: 10 Jan 2019 10:12:59 PM »
Scot is correct.  I was incorrect in quoting figures about 2019 salary obligations, because my first glance at franchise financial health is at committed funds not what someone owes for one year.  However, I will stand by the seeming inequity of having teams terminate costly contracts entered into when they had (in their opinion) adequate long-term resources to afford those agreements only to put them out to be picked up at a likely discount by those with low salary commitments.

That is a move I would not support.  That stated with full recognition there are six other members of the EC, let alone 23 other GMs.
« Last Edit: 10 Jan 2019 10:35:28 PM by Dodgers DS »

Blue Jays SH

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #12 on: 10 Jan 2019 10:15:26 PM »
Is it possible to calculate how many teams and how much core base salary has been slashed during the last 5 seasons?

Maybe we could “pay” those clubs reparations...

Also, does our current Financial Model need a complete overhaul or just eliminate the unexplainable “tweak” ratio?

Bill

If we take the tweak factor out, the raw payroll calculation ends up boiling down to wins in previous season divided by wins in 2002, multiplied by payroll in 2002. I don’t think we should be basing anything on what happened in 2002, and i’d like to see something less swingy than basically depending on 1 year’s worth of win totals.

Scot.
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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #13 on: 10 Jan 2019 11:50:59 PM »
However, I will stand by the seeming inequity of having teams terminate costly contracts entered into when they had (in their opinion) adequate long-term resources to afford those agreements only to put them out to be picked up at a likely discount by those with low salary commitments.

Why would they come at a likely discount?

The total amount of money available in the league would be unchanged, and there would be multiple new teams flush with additional cash. I see no reason to think that newly-released free agents would come at pennies on the dollar.

They might of course come at less than their current salaries, since the fact that a team chose to release an expensive FA rather than trade them or otherwise fit them in suggests that they were likely paid at or above their fair market value. But that's not the same as somehow giving newly-wealthy teams a screaming deal on star-caliber players.

An alternate approach might be to scale down the salaries of players on teams if their revenue is decreased. The net short-term benefit would at most even out (if I had $200M worth of value priced at $200M and you cut both my revenue and my payroll to $150M I still have the same amount of value). That would eliminate salary pressure and in some sense ease the teams into the new revenue reality. Better than giving them the opportunity to simply cut albatross contracts loose which I agree has too many potential headaches attached.

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Re: FM poll: should every team have the same payroll
« Reply #14 on: 11 Jan 2019 12:57:31 AM »

Why would they come at a likely discount?

The total amount of money available in the league would be unchanged, and there would be multiple new teams flush with additional cash. I see no reason to think that newly-released free agents would come at pennies on the dollar.

If this is your vision of the impact, by all means go for it.