Author Topic: META: Tier 1 FA discussion  (Read 190 times)

Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« on: 8 Jan 2019 10:10:35 AM »
As I'm sure most of you are aware, the EC posted the top 15 FA list for 2019 tier 1 FA yesterday. This list was generated by looking at the WS produced by DMBO FAs over the last 2 years. Our system generates a list of 18, sorted by WS. The EC can replace up to 3 of the top 15 with the players rated 16-18, and can also add international FAs, as they deem appropriate.

The reason that the top 15 determination is automated and covered in detail by the rules is because we used to tie compensation picks to who made the top 15 FA list, and the league wanted to have an arbitrary system that avoided accusations of bias. The downside is that every year, the system comes up with anumber of FAs in the top 15 who might well have had the best performances in DMBO the last 2 years, but who are almost worthless going forward. Note that this is what the system was designed to do: reward teams losing the FAs who had the highest level of performance over the last 2 years with compensation picks; the focus was never to come up with a list of the top 15 FAs.

Given that we've gotten rid of the compensation picks, I'd like to propose that we re-do how we determine the top 15 FA list for tier 1. I'd like to turn this into a league-wide discussion/vote. We can still have the system come up with a list of the top 18 to start the discussion, but I'd like to open the entire process up and have it so that anyone can propose a name to be considered for the top 15, and then allow anyone with an active forum account to vote on who they think the top 15 should be. Then we tally all the votes, and order the list based on the voting results.

Thoughts/comments? Any other suggestions?

Thanks.

Scot.
« Last Edit: 8 Jan 2019 10:29:20 AM by Blue Jays SH »
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #1 on: 8 Jan 2019 6:14:43 PM »
I think that sort of approach is definitely worth pursuing, Scot.
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #2 on: 8 Jan 2019 11:21:56 PM »
Iíd still rather have an automated way to decide over voting...or a small group to pick them. Using winshares from our previous years simulation is definitely not the best way to do it though.

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #3 on: 9 Jan 2019 6:28:30 AM »
I agree on both fronts, that it should be automated... and that winshares is not a good basis. Mainly because OUR winshares aee absolutely meaningless.

The only automated way that makes semse to me, is to gather a list of impending free agents and sok mehow be able to find rhose players REAL winshares for a designated stretch (3 years) but that sounds like a daunting task.
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #4 on: 9 Jan 2019 10:27:50 AM »
Could use projection numbers to determine them.

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #5 on: 9 Jan 2019 10:38:35 AM »
I agree on both fronts, that it should be automated... and that winshares is not a good basis. Mainly because OUR winshares aee absolutely meaningless.

The only automated way that makes semse to me, is to gather a list of impending free agents and sok mehow be able to find rhose players REAL winshares for a designated stretch (3 years) but that sounds like a daunting task.

Yeah, we're looking for a quick and easy way to do this; anything that involves a lot of extra work for the EC is a non-starter.

Scot.
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Blue Jays SH

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #6 on: 9 Jan 2019 10:41:03 AM »
Could use projection numbers to determine them.

We could, but the problem is timing - we usually run Tier 1 before all of the Zips projections are out. We could use Steamer or something else, which is usually available earlier in the off-season, but is a bit different than Zips.

I think having some kind of league involvement would be better, though - we as a group are going to have a better idea of who the top 15 FAs actually are than any automated system could.

Scot.
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #7 on: 9 Jan 2019 11:05:59 AM »
Really steamer would probably work and like you said is available earlier. Also...should 15 be a static number?

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #8 on: 9 Jan 2019 11:08:06 AM »
Really steamer would probably work and like you said is available earlier. Also...should 15 be a static number?

Whether or not 15 is the right number is actually part of a bigger question, about how we want to handle free agency overall. But right now, our system is set up to have 15 guys in tier 1, and as I understand it any changes would require significant coding updates that we're not really in a position to do right now. Definitely something to consider going forward, though.

Scot.
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #9 on: 9 Jan 2019 12:47:25 PM »
I like the 15 number because it was that way 13 years ago and seems to work. I definitely wouldn't raise it as free agency is more depleted every year. I would entertain 10 guys. As for using actual WAR to determine free agency I think that is a great idea. Baseball-Reference has a column under career stats for WAR for each year. If a committee recommended 20 guys for free agency it would take an hour to determine the top 15 (or 10). I would like to use the last two years WAR. I would even volunteer to do that. Heck, I might even entertain bringing back comp picks under this formula.

On another note I don't know who is doing what but you guys are doing a great job, thanks

Larry
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #10 on: 9 Jan 2019 2:21:34 PM »
For simplicity sake, I think we should choose the option that involves the least amount of work for someone to do and the EC to implement.  Tier 1 Free Agency is great, but to try and reinvent the wheel it may be best suited to invest time and effort into other tasks.

Just my two cents...

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #11 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:30:27 PM »
Does tier 1 even matter? why do we still have it, and why is it one player, one bid, per day?

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #12 on: 10 Jan 2019 8:35:29 PM »
Does tier 1 even matter? why do we still have it, and why is it one player, one bid, per day?

This is part of a bigger discussion we should have as a league; in the short term, the answer is that things will stay as they are because thatís how it is coded, and we do not currently have the time or expertise to change that.

Scot.
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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #13 on: 11 Jan 2019 10:43:28 AM »
While I don't like our tier 1 system, I respect the hell out of that answer. That to me is a legit reason to keep as is.

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Re: META: Tier 1 FA discussion
« Reply #14 on: 11 Jan 2019 10:52:04 AM »
I like our Tier 1 system. Every year there is a guy in Tier 2 that gets a contract way below market value. Tier 1 ensures that star players get a contract that is more realistic.

Larry