Author Topic: 2019 ZiPS  (Read 2761 times)

Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #45 on: 18 Apr 2019 8:28:54 PM »
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

It was Dan's choice, it seems.

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1118324970688524289

As I stated in BNSL... I disagree with it. Ohtani was given a pitching projection on the Angel's ZiPS page, it's still on his FG page, and every other pitcher with TJ has had a projection the following season.  The team playing it safe, shouldn't negate his ability to pitch (even if it would hurt his endurance rating, and the injury itself would hurt his projection since it's already built into ZiPS), just as a team choosing not to put a player at a position doesn't remove his position rating right away. 

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  • Chris Conley
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #46 on: 25 Apr 2019 10:31:11 AM »
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

The problem is that it is wildly inconsistent with past practice to remove Ohtani's pitching projection. Players who are known to be out for the year routinely get projections. And barring a player's demise, there has never to my knowledge been a case where a player gets an official published ZiPS projection but does not have that projection on the season disk. (Defensive ratings aren't part of the projection, they are added solely for the disk).

The whole "Mauer" logic only works if you remove projections for *EVERY* player who you know won't appear at a given position/role in the upcoming year. Arbitrarily leaving e.g. Corey Knebel on the disk while taking away Ohtani's pitching line makes no sense whatsoever.

Maybe I'm just venting because I've been out of commission for two weeks and haven't had a chacne to do so, I dunno. But this seems utterly nuts.
« Last Edit: 25 Apr 2019 11:01:19 AM by Yankees CC »

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  • Scot Hughes
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #47 on: 25 Apr 2019 12:55:26 PM »
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

The problem is that it is wildly inconsistent with past practice to remove Ohtani's pitching projection. Players who are known to be out for the year routinely get projections. And barring a player's demise, there has never to my knowledge been a case where a player gets an official published ZiPS projection but does not have that projection on the season disk. (Defensive ratings aren't part of the projection, they are added solely for the disk).

The whole "Mauer" logic only works if you remove projections for *EVERY* player who you know won't appear at a given position/role in the upcoming year. Arbitrarily leaving e.g. Corey Knebel on the disk while taking away Ohtani's pitching line makes no sense whatsoever.

Maybe I'm just venting because I've been out of commission for two weeks and haven't had a chacne to do so, I dunno. But this seems utterly nuts.

FWIW, the EC has been discussing this, and has agreed that we will be manually entering Ohtani's pitching projection into the database (as soon as we figure out how to do it). The fact that Ohtani got a pitching projection when the Angels' Zips were posted means that pretty much everyone expected him to get a pitching projection on the disk.

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Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #48 on: 4 May 2019 11:25:23 PM »
We're doing the same in BNSL, but after putting in his projections, splits, etc, and changing him to a dual player... it doesn't seem right.

in ~10 test sims, his BEST ERA was a 6.60 or so, with 5 wins, most he is 7+ ERA with 0 Ws in 33 starts.

any thought from those who are doing the changes here?

Orioles TK

  • Tracy Kienast
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #49 on: 5 May 2019 11:15:22 PM »
We're doing the same in BNSL, but after putting in his projections, splits, etc, and changing him to a dual player... it doesn't seem right.

in ~10 test sims, his BEST ERA was a 6.60 or so, with 5 wins, most he is 7+ ERA with 0 Ws in 33 starts.

any thought from those who are doing the changes here?

I haven't run any test sims.  It has set in my folder since Tom sent it to me.  Didn't want to mess with it until it was about ready for me to send to everyone.  I've entered everything I can find on Ohtani.  I don't see a starter rating anywhere for him.  Maybe I'm missing it.  What did BSNL use?
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Braves MQ

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #50 on: 5 May 2019 11:25:59 PM »
If this is any help, his DMB 2018 season disk starter ratings are:

Durability: Fr
Hold: Vg
Range: Av/66
GB pct: 43
Injury: Prone
Jam: Normal
Wild Pitch: 63
Balk: 29
Percent  Active : 86
Percent DL/Injury: 14
« Last Edit: 5 May 2019 11:32:21 PM by Braves MQ »
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Orioles TK

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #51 on: 6 May 2019 12:07:58 AM »
I've simmed a couple times with the only modification is putting Ohtani in Seattles rotation and the additions I've made to him as a pitcher.  He has been terrible. I'm not sure what I'm leaving out. I've got everything in I can find on him.
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Twins BS

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #52 on: 6 May 2019 3:27:59 AM »
I've simmed a couple times with the only modification is putting Ohtani in Seattles rotation and the additions I've made to him as a pitcher.  He has been terrible. I'm not sure what I'm leaving out. I've got everything in I can find on him.

This is the problem I'm having. The's absolutely terrible... Now, I've created a new player, and his general performance is good, but somehow his K/9 ends up around 17 every single season.. and that's just silly.

If this is any help, his DMB 2018 season disk starter ratings are:

Durability: Fr
Hold: Vg
Range: Av/66
GB pct: 43
Injury: Prone
Jam: Normal
Wild Pitch: 63
Balk: 29
Percent  Active : 86
Percent DL/Injury: 14

his ratings and things are listed in the ZiPS spreadsheet (PR sp rating, PR hold, etc.) So he's easy to modify, it's just not working as intended.

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #53 on: 6 May 2019 12:45:18 PM »
Yeah, I forgot about the spreadsheets but put them in last night. Latest sim has him with era over 7 and a 2-20 record
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #54 on: 6 May 2019 1:59:15 PM »
Yeah, I forgot about the spreadsheets but put them in last night. Latest sim has him with era over 7 and a 2-20 record

Is his primary position listed as SP? Otherwise the game may think he’s a position player on the mound and thus not use the pitching stats at all since most position players don’t pitch enough to have a statistically valid basis for a “card.” Pure speculation but worth a look.

Braves MQ

  • Michael Quinn
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #55 on: 6 May 2019 5:32:18 PM »
There is a selection for a "dual" role to allow for use at both positions. It does ask for a primary position identification even when "dual" is selected.

I am in a league that is using the 2018 season disk and he is being used as a SP and DH and his stats so far are reasonable.
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Twins BS

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #56 on: 6 May 2019 7:47:30 PM »
the 2018 projection AND season disks should be fine for him, as they were created and compiled with him as a dual player.

I have tried making his main position SP, etc. The only thing that gives him a realistic general performance, is creating him from scratch (but that changes his ID, though not UID and gstats ID). The problem is some weird thing where every single season, he has ungodly K/9 rates, even with his ERA being totally normal.

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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #57 on: 7 May 2019 6:38:41 PM »
What is Plan B in the BNSL if Ohtani ends up with jacked up sim results in test runs? I ask because I think the DMBO needs to start thinking along these lines, too. If we cannot get reasonable results in sim test runs from a manually-generated profile, then surely the league cannot allow his use as a dual player. Right? For example, Seattle could be provided with options that allow the club to try to compete without using Ohtani as a dual player.
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Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #58 on: 7 May 2019 11:17:13 PM »
We're in the same boat... as we don't necessarily have a Plan B.. or C.

BUT... we think we may have found the solution. I'm going to run a few more test sims, but so far so good.

Add Ohtani's pitching Real-Life (projection) Stats and Pitching Splits from the spreadsheet, along with the endurance, hld, walk, balk, etc ratings.

THEN, change him to dual player, and primary position SP.

THEN, Modify > Pitching Event Table > (it seems changing creation to Left/right works best) Okay > Okay

And that, should do it. Apparently, opening and confirming the event table pulls in his stats from the Real Life stats entry? Maybe, I don't know why it works, but it seems to. I'll let you know if tests show otherwise, but in 4 or 5 sims, he seems okay (high 3 and low 4 ERA, 11 to 12K per 9).  Let me know if it works, or doesn't even more so, for you, please!
« Last Edit: 8 May 2019 1:22:34 AM by Twins BS »

Orioles TK

  • Tracy Kienast
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Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Reply #59 on: 8 May 2019 11:28:59 AM »
Okay, I think that will do it.  I just ran four sims looking at what Ohtani did pitching as the 3rd SP for Seattle.
11-5, 2.79 era, 12.1 K/9, 177 IP
8-14, 4.41 era, 10.1 K/9, 181 IP
10-12, 3.59 era, 11.4 K/9, 175 IP
9-6, 2.26 era, 10.9 K/9, 179 IP

I think we are good to go with Ohtani.
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