Author Topic: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018  (Read 262 times)

Athletics GAT

  • G. Alex Tays
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Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« on: 5 Oct 2018 12:11:18 PM »
So since the season ended i have been pouring over the final stats and comparing them to the Zips Projections and here is my list of Most Under-performing Hitter of 2018.

Code: [Select]
Player Zips RAA Sim RAA DIF
Joey Votto 76.5 20.4 -56.1
Xander Bogaerts 25.9 -24.9 -50.8
Paul Goldschmidt 65.6 15.9 -49.7
Eric Thames 34.7 -12.1 -46.8
Ian Happ 25.1 -21.5 -46.6

So what does everyone else think?

Who would you vote for for this prestigious award?

I had a harder time of quantifying the Pitcher side of things, but will try and post a followup with their data at a later time.

Career Record: 493-479
Wildcard: 2012


Cubs JD

  • Jason Daseler
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Re: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« Reply #1 on: 5 Oct 2018 12:17:37 PM »
I'm probably biased because it's been maddening to watch him underperform so much for my team all year, but it's got to be Votto.  His overall line was still useful but he's supposed to be a top-tier star. 

Orioles TK

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Re: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« Reply #2 on: 5 Oct 2018 8:24:11 PM »
Bogaerts was pretty awful all season.  I don't think his BA got over .200 until August.
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Rays SS

  • Shane Setnor
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Re: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« Reply #3 on: 8 Oct 2018 1:37:20 PM »
Feels like Votto to me. He's just so consistent that it's surprising for him to do poorly. Happ, Thames and Bogaerts seems to have a much higher risk potential.

Royals JC

  • Jon Carney
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Re: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« Reply #4 on: 8 Oct 2018 7:21:09 PM »
Feels like Votto to me. He's just so consistent that it's surprising for him to do poorly. Happ, Thames and Bogaerts seems to have a much higher risk potential.
This.  Votto has to have simmed near the 20% range of his projection, and I would bet a ton of money that he's got an incredibly low probability of dropping that low.
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Yankees CC

  • Chris Conley
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Re: Most Under-performing Hitters of 2018
« Reply #5 on: 9 Oct 2018 10:31:29 AM »
The funny thing is that RL Votto had a down year as well (not as bad as DMBO Votto, though closer than it looks once you account for the far better pitching in DMBO), but in a totally different fashion --  DMBO Votto decided to strike out an extra 30 times and lose 50 points of BABIP all at once, while RL Votto did neither of those but instead didn't even reach half of his projected HR total.

Moral of the story: sim baseball and RL baseball are both weird.