Author Topic: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity  (Read 136 times)

Pirates LW

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Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« on: 16 Jul 2018 7:52:45 PM »
As we are well aware MLB, often has a gusher of trading activity leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Here in DMBO land, it's usually pretty quiet. I'm wondering if people have ideas regarding potential  changes we could institute to increase our trade deadline activity. Obviously not for this season, but for future seasons.

Any thoughts?
Larry Waters
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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #1 on: 16 Jul 2018 8:51:40 PM »
The #1 factor that increases trading at the deadline is having lots of teams out of the running for a playoff spot and thus holding fire sales. I don't think it's inactivity (bad) as much as competitive balance (good).

Also, I think we've had a steady stream of trades already. In the first two weeks of July, we've already had a number of solid players change hands including Martin Perez, Danny Duffy, Jedd Gyorko, Francisco Cervelli, Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland, and Joe Mauer.

I doubt it's over, either. Last year, from today's date until the July 31 trade deadline, we had 18 deals involving players, and the following players (among others) were traded:

Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Sanchez, Jake Arrieta, Jackie Bradley, Brandon Crawford, Adam Duvall, Jarrod Dyson, Koji Uehara

So we'll see what the next couple of weeks hold, but I suspect we'll see more big deals before the deadline.

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #2 on: 16 Jul 2018 10:10:11 PM »
The #1 factor that increases trading at the deadline is having lots of teams out of the running for a playoff spot and thus holding fire sales. I don't think it's inactivity (bad) as much as competitive balance (good).

The other factor is that most teams deep into rebuilding traded away most of their assets in the off-season. There are no Zack Brittons suddenly regaining value for the rest of 2018, and virtually no Machados rostered on teams that never had a prayer. So even the teams who would be sellers don't have a whole lot to offer at this point.

Incorporating the mid-season update would absolutely change things, as selling teams would suddenly have assets they didn't expect and contenders might we'll have unanticipated needs. Something to consider, anyhow.

Pirates LW

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #3 on: 17 Jul 2018 8:39:56 AM »
Yeah I'm thinking along the same lines.

Many of our "dump" trades have already been made.

The incentive to win is not as strong in DMBO as it is in reality.

Because we have fewer than 30 open roster spots for prospects, we are forced to cut the lesser types. Therefore the remaining prospects are mostly held in high esteem. Which makes trading one or two for an expiring contract less appealing.

In my original post I was thinking about the last couple of days prior to the July 31 deadline. We see lots of MLB trades July 29-31. There hasn't much DMBO activity on those days. It's fine. Not a complaint. I guess it's just one the differences baked into the cake.
Larry Waters
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Avoiding disasters with occasional brilliance

Dodgers DS

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #4 on: 17 Jul 2018 9:11:40 AM »
Let's not forget the impact of the second Wild Card slot in each league.  Teams can finish the season a dozen or more games out of the divisional lead and theoretically still qualify for the postseason.  Teams (in both the simulated and real worlds) are just less apt to give up talent that just might help put them into a playoff situation. 

Just from the perspective of an uninformed observer, I do think August trades of "name" players may be more common in MLB than in DMBO.

In concert with an earlier comment from Larry, a DMBO GM whose team is out of the race approaching the end of July is likely much more apt to have become disinterested in the season than someone whose livelihood is dependent upon the displayed plan of action to right the ship.

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #5 on: 17 Jul 2018 10:16:49 AM »

The incentive to win is not as strong in DMBO as it is in reality.


This is the answer for me.  We don't have a fan base and media to answer to.  We also don't have the human element that adding a big time player can have on a clubhouse, so even the best players are worth only 2 or 3 wins in the back half.  Combine that with the financial incentives that go with younger players and it restricts some movement. 

While in the race, I would be more likely to deal someone like Strasburg for future assets than I would trade future assets for a rental. 

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #6 on: 17 Jul 2018 11:04:31 AM »
The incentive to win is not as strong in DMBO as it is in reality.

I don't think it's quite that simple. For one thing, many MLB teams are clearly no longer interested in winning 70 games instead of 60. They've seen the Cubs and Astros succeed wildly by abandoning short-term mediocrity in favor of long-term success.

But the bigger issue is that MLB teams simply have far more variance than DMB teams. Juan Soto has turned into a stud overnight, but that doesn't change the DMBO Orioles' outlook. Shohei Ohtani won't pitch again in real life in 2018, but the DMBO Mariners can keep him in the rotation all year. Yes, we get random statistical flukes, but the underlying projections do not change in the least from Game 1 to Game 162.

That makes it a lot harder to justify investing in a 81 win season in the hopes that you will somehow fluke your way into a playoff berth. It also makes the market a lot different in mid-season because teams aren't suddenly facing the prospect of a stretch drive without Ohtani, Danny Salazar, Garrett Richards, etc. in their rotation. Contenders are still looking to improve on their Opening Day rosters, but they aren't dealing with holes that have appeared since then, which reduces demand for decent-but-no-better players significantly. Nobody's buying a Dylan Floro in DMBO, because no one needs one.

Expanding rosters so there are more minor/lottery ticket prospects available for minor trades might help, as would using the midseason projection update to add actual in-season changes. Not much I can see that would make a difference beyond that.

Marlins JM

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #7 on: 17 Jul 2018 11:23:50 AM »
I agree with all of this... and yes, the incentive to win isn't as strong...

Maybe the reward isn't great enough ?

Or the penalties for being horrible aren't great enough ?

Sad thing is... I'm in the middle of having my first real "decent" team in about 5 years, and I still waver back and forth between trying to win this season, verses prolonging a wish and hope for a "super team".
Losingest team in DMBO History... by an ASSLOAD

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #8 on: 17 Jul 2018 11:25:47 AM »
Using the midseason projection update is an interesting idea to consider.

Pirates LW

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Re: Ideas for increasing trade deadline activity
« Reply #9 on: 17 Jul 2018 11:41:03 AM »
The reality of the situation is we won't be fired by the Team Owner if we don't win.  ;D

Nor will we be rewarded with a multi-year million dollar contract extension if we do win. :'(
Larry Waters
Assistant General Manager, Pittsburgh Pirates


Avoiding disasters with occasional brilliance