Author Topic: NL East Preview  (Read 509 times)

Rays SS

  • Shane Setnor
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NL East Preview
« on: 12 Apr 2018 4:55:56 PM »
Welcome to the Official DMBO NL East Projection-A-Paloozaô ďWhere the projections are slightly better than the arbitrary guesses of stoned college kids.Ē ô

Disclaimer: You might be wondering why your moderator is qualified to do these projections or why you should take them serious and this note is here to tell you that in no way should you rely upon these opinions for baseball (fictional or real) or legal advice. These are being written hastily during a deposition, under the haze of a toddler induced sleepless night, and fueled by an unhealthy amount of coffee and self-spite.

Note: I am guessing on a few lineups, so if youíre one of those and youíre all, ďHey now! Thatís not how Iíll do it! Iíll eradicate Shane! I am the Eradicator,Ē please go ahead and table that talk. One, thatís an obscure reference and I commend your knowledge of pre-21st Century Canadian sketch TV show. Two, itís just a guess. Your mysterious lineups are safe unless theyíve been pulled by Facebook and sold to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

5th Place

Miami Marlins of the British Virgin Islands

Projection: 75 Wins

From the looks of it, Todd Frazier is going to have to do his drinking alone as this could be the youngest lineup in all of DMBO. Not that thereís anything wrong with drinking alone, even if you went to a bar last night alone and the server knew your drink and to-go order because sheís memorized and man, youíre just sad as heck. Oh hey, the Red Sox and Yankees are fighting!
There is some nice balance to this lineup, though there isnít a classic big bopper. Brinson and Albies are the only two projected for a sub .330 OBP, so this team should rack up some ABís. Willson Contreras behind the dish makes for a nice bat to make up for Brinsonís somewhat weak projection as a left fielder.

Speaking of balance, the Fish sport 3 switch-hitters, which could somewhat negate the emergence of late-game relievers being so dominate. Josh Bell is one of those switch-hitters and that flexibility makes up for a slight lack of power at 1B.

Defensively, this isnít a special team as most players are just about league average. Odubel Herrera is a plus in CF, but at SS, Profar is nothing to write home to mom about. Not that youíd write hoe to your mom about fake baseball. Trust me, thatís not what I wrote to your mom about. Heyooo!


The ace here is the underrated Jose Quintana and his 3.19 ERA projection. He may not be elite, but the lefty can hold his own. The rest of the staff leaves a little to be desired as the next best projected ERA is Michael Wachaís 4.02.  Itís a promising staff for the future, but German Marquez, Taijuan Walker and Lucas Giolito are second tier 3, 4, and 5 starters.

The bullpen is likewise underwhelming. Keone Kela and Brandon Morrow are solid in the bullpen. As is lefty Brad Hand. But McCallister, Rusin and Vincent are not ideal.


As the 5th best projected team, I could still see a sim where the Marlins are in contention for a wildcard spot. The addition of a better left-fielder and another quality starter could be in the cards.

4th Place

Atlanta Suburb Braves of Cobb County

Projection: 81 Wins


This team is pretty much the definition of average. Itís like someone in excel typed in =AVERAGE(DMBOBRAVES) and this is what popped up.

The lineup has some interesting players and it is highlighted by one of the games best hitters in Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is surrounded by Avisail Garcia and Domingo Santana, which makes for a solid top 3 hitters. Blake Swihart is an above average option at catcher and utility guy Yangervis Solarte plays fine at 3rd wit a .328/.446 slash. Unfortunately, the back 3 of the lineup are quite a drop off as Jordy Mercer, Adeiny Hechavarria and Juan Lagares donít do much with the bat.

This team could be susceptible to right-handed pitching as well as Rizzo is the only projected starting lefty. Swihart and Solarte are both switch-hitters and teams would be wise to avoid throwing a lefty against the Barves when possible.

Defensively, Lagares makes up for his lack of hitting with elite range in CF. Thatís the good news. The bad news is Mercer isnít rated at 2B and Hechavarria is bland at SS.


The starting pitching here is just fine. There will not be any Cy Young contenders on this squad. Zach Davies is the de facto ace with a 4.05 ERA. The oft-injured Brandon McCarthy is a solid 5th starter when healthy. I love Kyle Freeland (go Aces!), but an unsightly 4.71 projection is tough to stomach.

The good news is that the Braves can afford to pull their starters early with an above-average bullpen. Luke Gregerson or Joakim Soria could end up closing. Heath Hembree and Pat Neshek will look to lock down the earlier innings. Peter Moylan, a ROOGY, and Fernanda Abad, a LOOGY, compliment each other well.


Itís hard to see this team really competing, but thereís a chance for the wildcard. If the Braves are competitive, there should be quite a few options to upgrade Mercer and starting pitching.

3rd Place

New York Mets

Projected Wins: 83


This is the tale of two teams. It was the best of times (their pitching). It was the worst of times (their hitting).

While there are no serious holes here, the hitting just doesnít hold up to the pitching. In particular, this team just isnít going to get on base much outside of George Springer. Victor Caratiniís .325 OBP is second best and aging 1B Chris Davisís .318 is the third. Adam Jones is less valuable hitting wise as a left-fielder and Kingery is still a year or two away from being a top tier player.

This is also a team that could be dominated by quality right-handed pitching. Davis and Scooter Gennett are the teamís only starting lefty hitters. Caratini is another switch-hitting catcher, but thatís not quite enough to really balance a lineup.

Defensively, Pillar is one of the best CFs in the game and should help an already stacked pitching staff. Jones moving to LF should be a positive move, but Iím not certain how much the software will like it. Kingery at 3B is also a fairly positive defender. SS Jean Segura is a fine hitter, but is basically a perfectly average defender.


This could be one of the best pitching staffs in all of DMBOland. DMBOdom? DMBOville? Wherever it is, itís damn good.

Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner as about as good a 1-2 punch that there is. Johnny Cueto, who was passed around the league like a bottle of cheap vodka at a prom party, is good #3 option. Lefties Sean Manaea and Patrick Corbin are a drop off, but profile just fine as 4/5 guys.

Once you knock the starters out, the bullpen doesnít get any easier. Sean Doolittle and Joe Kelly are reliable relievers, though not elite. Liam Hendricks and Bryan Shaw are also competent. Starting pitching Matt Moore looks to start the season as the mop-up guy and swing pitcher.


This team could easily compete for the division title with the pitching alone. With a good sim, the Mets would be buyers and could easily improve this team via trades.

2nd Place

Washington Nationals

Projected Wins: 84


Another well-balanced team, the Nationals have quite a bit of pop to go along with some solid on-base skills. Corey and Kyle Seager are top tier sticks on the left side of the infield. And any time you can get brothers together, itís good for team morale. Except for when my brother and I played competitive softball together and I had to the be coach. The rest of the team can attest to that being a bad idea, which is why instituted a rule about drinking more.

Brandon Belt is underrated in real life and would be a great lead-off hitter on this team. I could also see the Nats platooning Curtis Granderson and Jake Smolinski to make an above average RF. Kurt Suzuki and Maxwell behind the plate should also make for a solid platoon.
With platoons in place and the switch-hitting Reyes at 2B the Nats should be able to bat 5/3 against opposing pitchers.

Defensively, the Seager brothers are above-average on the left side. In CF, though, Carlos Gomezís best days are behind him and he merely an average defender at this point in his career.


The Nats could use some improvement here if they want to compete for the division. Steven Matz and Dylan Bundy are over-matched as the top guys. Joe Musgrove and Ryu are are better 4/5 guys as opposed to one of them being  a #3. Lucchesi could be easily replaceable, but shouldnít sink the team as the 5th starter.

The bullpen is led by veteran relievers Ryan Madson and Brad Ziegler. 2017 breakout old guy Anthony Swarzak looks to give some solid mid-game innings. Dan Otero is also a great option for the mid-game innings.


The Nats may be projected as second best in this division, but even they arenít guaranteed to compete for the wildcard. They will likely be competitive though. A mid-season SP acquisition and a new LF would go a long way.

1st Place

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Wins: 89


The Phils have a balanced lineup with no serious holes, though some of the hitter do have some issues. Josh Donaldson is a superstar at thirds and the heart of the lineup. Brett Gardner is a solid table setter and has some surprising pop. Yonder Alonsoís renaissance combined with Hanley Ramirez on his downslide should make for a very good platoon at 1B. Any time you can have a catcher contribute offensively, it stretches what you can do offensively as a time. Russel Martinís best days are behind him, but he can still get on base and a good clip.

Jason Heyward might be the weakest hitter, but he might be one of the best defensive RFs of all time. Brandon Crawford, Donaldson and Gardner are also going to save quite a few runs and make the pitching staff very happy.


Itís a bit discomforting to project a division winner whose best starter, Luis Gohara, is projected with a 3.71 ERA. But here we are. Emerging Charlie Morton is right behind Gohara with a 3.79 ERA and veteran Gio Gonzalez is at a 3.97. Jordan Montgomery is better suited as a 5th starter with his 4.23 and Kopech is forgettable with a 4.44.

Coming out of the pen is a triumvirate more powerful than Julius Caesar, Marcus Licinius Crassus, and Pompey the Great. Wade Davis, Edwin Diaz, and Arodys Vizcaino arenít going to give up many leads. If I had to chose, Iíd say Diaz is Crassus because he seems to have some lofty goals. Davis is Caesar as heís steady and people thought he was out, but heís come back strong and in charge. Arodys is Pompey because heís the most likely to be assassinated in front of his family and friends (I have nothing to back this up). Lefties Blaine Hardy and Mike Minor should be able to eat up some innings as well.


I donít feel great projecting the Phils as division champs, but my out-dated Excel sheet says otherwise. If they find themselves winning the division come July, then I would imagine theyíd be willing to pay for an ace.

Royals JC (Ret)

  • Jon Carney
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Re: NL East Preview
« Reply #1 on: 13 Apr 2018 2:02:21 PM »
Toddlers.  Ugh.

Love the write up, Shane!
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Yankees CC

  • Chris Conley
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Re: NL East Preview
« Reply #2 on: 13 Apr 2018 3:05:11 PM »
Toddlers.  Ugh.

Toddlers are the worst, except for all the other ages, which are equally bad (and awesome) in their own fashion.

Pirates LW

  • Larry Waters
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Re: NL East Preview
« Reply #3 on: 13 Apr 2018 3:37:17 PM »
Newborns have the advantage of remaining exactly where you last placed them. Once they start "toddling", they're tougher to keep track of.
Larry Waters
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Marlins JM

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Re: NL East Preview
« Reply #4 on: 13 Apr 2018 9:24:08 PM »
I cringe whenever I hear parents of infants that say they "Can't wait till they start walking"

Trust me...

You can wait.
Losingest team in DMBO History... by an ASSLOAD

Phillies TP

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Re: NL East Preview
« Reply #5 on: 14 Apr 2018 3:46:07 PM »
Great writeup, Shane! I especially liked the part where the Phillies finish first. 😄