AL West 2018 Preview
My goal is to take a fair but critical look at these five teams. No criticism of trades will be found here; at least not related to the current owners. Harsh critiques of previous owners is possible. However, this will not be 100% sweet and rosy. Some thoughts could question current roster setup. It is designed to be taken as suggestions, not criticism. The writer assumes the current placement of players on the 25 man roster and the Reserve Roster will not change all that much between now and the start of the season.
In 2017 the LA Angels won 88 games. That was good enough to capture the AL West crown by eight games over the second place A’s. Houston was 3rd with 71 wins, Texas was 4th with 70 and the Mariners were the tail-enders with a record of 56-106. Overall the division was 80 games under .500. When AL West teams played outside their division in ‘17 their group winning percentage was .406. Over 162 games that equates to a 66-96 season. Needless to say it was not a strong division.
Predicted order of finish in 2018
LA Angels – Angels are clear favorites to repeat
Oakland A’s – In limbo. Better than Seattle & Houston, but not in Angels class.
Seattle Mariners – will battle Astros for 3rd
Houston Astros – Neck & neck with Seattle
Texas Rangers – Texas in full blown rebuild mode
Texas Rangers – Mitchell King enters his 2nd year at the helm of the Texas Rangers. Rather than trying to improve upon a 70 win season, Mitchell chose to go in the other direction - and with a vengeance. First significant off-season move was sending Mashiro Tanaka to the Yankees along with a suitcase filled with $67million dollars in exchange for Jeimer Candelario, Teoscar Hernandez and Grant Holmes. The very next day (Christmas Day) Mitchell fully pulled the plug on his 2018 season with a 16 player trade with Baltimore. Leaving Texas were, Zach Britton, Raisel Iglesias, Carson Kelly, DJ LeMahieu, Tommy Pham, Carols Rondon and Justin Smoak. Landing in Arlington were nine players with very little major league experience. Texas also received Baltimore’s #1pick in 2019; which figures to be a pick in the lower third of the round. Later on Texas parted with Brandon Maurer, Todd Frazier, and Neil Walker. The blow-up was now complete.
The additions with major league service time are Adrian Gonzalez, David Freese, Devin Mesoraco and Franklin Barreto. This might be a re-build of epic proportions.
What remains in Texas? A team that might be good in 2022 or 2023. But for 2018, it’s gonna be rough, very, very rough.
Based upon the current 25 man roster the starting rotation could look like this:
Brent Suter 4.41ERA; with ERA+ 98
Adalberto Mejia 4.48ERA; ERA+ 93
Jordan Zimmerman 4.60ERA; ERA+ 91
Jake Junis 4.48ERA; ERA+ 87
Ariel Miranda 5.02ERA; ERA+ 82
On the reserve roster we find Mike Clevinger (ERA+ 95) and Vince Velasquez (ERA+ 98). This pair would be an improvement over Junis and Miranda. Considering the ages of Clevinger (27) and Velasquez (26) they do not fit the mold of up & coming prospects. This duo might be as good as they are ever going to be right now in 2018. Using Clevinger & Velasquez in the ‘18 rotation would figure to add a few wins compared to Junis & Miranda.
The best part of the Texas roster is the bullpen. Overall the pen could be average to slightly above average.
Jake Diekman ERA+ 121
Jim Johnson 110
Pedro Baez 106
Robbie Ross Jr 108
The pen will walk too many batters, but this quartet will be passable.
The Hitters
The offense is going to struggle. The player with the best OPS+ (Jesse Winker 102) is not on the active roster. The presumed starters with OPS+ value are:
C – Devin Mesoraco 95
1B - Adrian Gonzalez 99
2B – Carlos Asuaje 84
3B – Jeimer Candelario 98
SS – Jorge Polanco 95
LF – Jarrett Parker 91
CF – Travis Jankowski 69
RF - Teoscar Hernandez 89
DH - David Freese 89
Defensively, the Rangers should be ok. Jankowski and Teoscar are above average as is reserve outfielder Ryan Cordell. The only below average defender is th#1 catcher Mesoraco.
The decision to blow up the roster is history, it can’t be undone. This very well could be the DMBO roster with the least major league talent of all 30 clubs. In a league where the failure rate for minor league players is roughly 60%, a roster chock full of youngsters is not guaranteed to become very successful in the short term or even long term. While there is potential and hope, those two do not necessarily add up to success. The three to four year future cannot be determined now.
What can be claimed now is the best 25 players are not on the active roster as of this writing. Are the Rangers trying to maximize their wins to increase their 2019 revenue or are they trying to gain the #1 pick in the 2019 summer draft? The roster-building debate is which is the most efficient route to success? Compiling draft picks then play the wait & hope game? Or increase the salary cap to be able to purchase free agents and be able to take on contracts of major league talent via trade?
The Over/Under on the Texas win total is 63.5.
Houston Astros - Ryan Hicks is the newcomer to the AL West. He inherits a team that finished 3rd but was 20 games under .500. This year’s squad figures to be better in the W/L department; but the Astros will be challenged to improve on the 3rd place finish.
The players signed this offseason are: Danny Valencia, Charlie Culberson, Bartolo Colon & John Axford; nothing to get the fans too exciting within that group; but they all fill a need.
The Starting Rotation could look like this:
Julio Teheran 4.53; ERA+ 96
Sean Newcomb 4.22: 99
Mike Leake 3.92; 95
Ian Kennedy 4.95; 88
Bartolo Colon 4.79; 84
Needless to say, the rotation does not figure to be the strongest part of the team.
Now the bullpen
Mike Montgomery 4.43; 106
Nick Goody 3.87; 110
Oliver Perez 3.76; 109
Tyler Clippard 4.02; 102
Drew Storen 4.55, 98
Similar to the Rangers, the bullpen has better numbers than the starters.
The hitters who figure to get most of the at-bats with OPS+ value
C - Jason Castro 85 & Cameron Rupp 86; this could be a platoon
1B - Danny Valencia 93
2B - Logan Forsythe 104
3B - Eugenio Suarez 112
SS - Ivan DeJesus 70
LF - Willie Calhoun 116
CF - Marcel Ozuna 119
RF - Nick Markakis 92
DH - Hyun Soo Kim 105
Jacoby Ellsbury & Ramiel Tapia are the 4th & 5th outfielders. Charlie Culberson fills the utility role. The above is not the best defensive outfield alignment. If Ryan is interested in the best outfield defense that looks like this:
LF - Ozuna 119
CF - Ellsbury 93
RF - Markakis 92
That pushes Calhoun to the bench or to DH then Kim goes to the bench.
The glaring weakness is SS. Not only does DeJesus have a 70 OPS+, his SS defense is Fr/155 and his zWAR is -0.1. A better SS option is on the reserve roster; Dawel Lugo. Lugo’s OPS+ is 91 and his zWAR is 1.5.
The offense will be representative. The question is can the bats score enough runs to compensate for the shortcoming of the Starting Rotation.
The Over/Under on the Astros win total is 74.5.
Seattle Mariners - This will be Bill Weismandel’s 3rd DMBO season; but 2018 is the first season he is aggressively trying to compete for wins. Seattle made the biggest news of the off-season with the 10 year $443 mil contract for Shohei Ohtani. Shohei will be Seattle’s best SP (ERA+ 118) and he might be their best hitter. But as a corner OFer/DH, Ohtani’s OPS+ of 106 is nice, but not outstanding.
The Starting Rotation with ERA & ERA+
Shohei Ohtani 3.55; 118
Julio Urias 4.03; 104
Tim Dillard 4.04; 101
Shelby Miller 4.36; 99
Yadier Alvarez 4.50; 94
Trevor Cahill & Kyle Zimmer are also available to start.
The bullpen could be exceptional:
Archie Bradley 3.12; 134
Scott Alexander 3.50; 118
James Pazos 3.57; 115
Ryan Tepera 3.85; 115
Scott Oberg 3.92; 115
Buddy Boshers 4.12; 96
The starting nine with OPS+ could be:
C - Francisco Mejia 84
1B - Byung Ho Park 96
2B - Pat Valaika 72
3B - Drew Ward 70
SS - Elvis Andrus 97
LF - Hunter Renfroe 101
CF - Bradley Zimmer 86
RF - Shohei Ohtani 106
DH - Mac Williamson 85
There might be an issue with the offense at 2B & 3B. The reserve roster is nicely stocked with Anthony Alford, Victor Robles & Brendan Rodgers. Putting Rodgers (OPS+ 92) at 2B would improve the run production. The team is loaded with plus defensive outfielders. The best of the bunch is Victor Robles who is currently not on the active roster.
Seattle are the mirror image of the Astros. With Houston we assume they will score enough runs to be competitive, but will the pitchers be able to limit the damage when the other guys get to hit. With the Mariners, pitching figures to be the strong suite. The question is can they pitch well enough to win a boatload of low scoring contests.
Over/Under for Seattle is 75.5 wins.
Oakland Athletics - A’s owner Alex Tays begins his 7th DMBO season as CEO of the Athletics.Oakland is coming off a 2nd place finish in 2017, albeit with only 80 wins. This off-season Alex made two big splashes signing 33-year old Justin Turner for $22.5mil per and 34-year old Jon Lester for $35.8mil AAV; both were signed to four year contracts.Clearly the A’s plan on pushing the envelope this year and probably again in 2019.
The Starting Five (ERA; ERA+) could look like this:
Jon Lester 3.69; 123
Lance McCullers 3.29; 119
Eduardo Rodriguez 3.94; 108
Erasmo Ramirez 4.20; 99
AJ Cole 5.03; 85
The Top 4 are excellent. When the #4 guy has an ERA+ of 99; that’s very nice. Other options besides Cole for the #5 spot are Chris Bassett & Juan NIcasio. Both Bassett & Nicasio would be useful bullpen arms.
Bullpen
Roberto Osuna 2.72; 159
David Hernandez 3.27; 120
Derek Law 3.31; 109
Edubray Ramos 3.32; 117
Juan Nicasio 3.64; 101
Nothing wrong with those bullpen arms.
The primary bats include:
C - Tim Fedorwicz 84
1B - Ian Desmond 89
2B - Tony Kemp 93
3B - Justin Turner 130
SS - Javier Baez 94
LF - Ian Happ 114
CF - Aaron Hicks 103
RF- Albert Almora 89
DH - Ryan McMahon 100
The A’s could challenge for the division title. More likely they are a strong contender for an appearance in the AL Wild Card game.
Over/Under for Oakland is 88.5 wins.
Los Angeles Angels - Patrick Haight is the veteran of the AL West. Patrick begins his 13th season in DMBO. His Angels have averaged 88 wins since 2014 and are two-time defending division champions. In 2018 they are the top dog in the division and possibly in the entire AL.
It was a busy winter in Anaheim. Players brought onboard since the close of the 2017 campaign include Freddy Freeman, Nick Williams, Ryan Zimmerman, Francisco Cervelli, Brad Peacock, Chris Iannetta, Melky Cabrera, Boone Logan and Tony Watson.
The starting rotation with ERA & ERA+
Danny Salazar 3.48, 117
Luis Castillo 3.87, 112
Dinelson Lamet 3.78, 100
Jacob Faria 4.08, 105
Brad Peacock 4.01, 101
When/if a 6th SP is needed, Bryan Mitchell (3.55, 105). Unlike their division opponents, none of the Angels’ SP have an ERA+ under 100.
Then there is the bullpen. If you're looking for a team weakness it isn’t here.
James Hoyt 2.93, 131
Shane Greene 3.69, 121
Tony Watson 3.85, 115
AJ Ramos 3.61, 114
Fernando Rodney 4.04, 105
Again, no ERA+ under 100.
Then there are the bats - and plenty of them. The Angels are loaded with hitters whose primary position is 1B, but due to guys being eligible at other slots and the DH they all can play regularly
In the entire AL West, there are five hitters with an OPS+ above 120. The Angels have four of them.
C - Franciso Cervelli 88, Chris Iannetta 93
1B - Paul Goldschmidt 140
2B - Brian Dozier 121
3B - Ryan Zimmerman 106
SS - Freddy Galvis 90
LF - Marwin Gonzalez 110
CF - Jake Marisnick 89
RF- Eric Thames 125
DH - Freddy Freeman 151
What about injuries . Who will fill holes created by injuries? Here is the bench:
Wilmer Flores 108
Brad Miller 108
Matt Kemp 107
Nick Williams 99
Melky Cabrera 98
Most of these guys would be starting for another AL West club. The Angels are not perfect, they do have one weakness. Their defensive ratings are subpar. The only plus defenders are Goldschmidt and Marisnick. And even those two are not Gold Glove caliber, they just look good compared to their teammates. Is defense their achilles heel? Probably not. That’s because their pitchers are projected to average more than 9K per game. Seven pitchers on the staff have a K/g rate > 9.7. Heck, they have three pitchers whose K rate is above 11 strikeouts per game. When the ball isn’t being put in play very often, it doesn’t matter all that much what your defense can’t do.
Angels win the division with room to spare.
Over/Under on Angels wins is 96.5. Yes they are that good.
