Author Topic: Biggest. Deal. Ever.  (Read 2594 times)

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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #30 on: 14 Jan 2016 2:02:58 PM »
Ouch, that's terrible.  That's definitely not the way I calculate prospect value.  I don't care who the prospect is - each year's Top 100 list is basically 100 instances of data to be used by the model, and if we happen to get the same player appearing multiple times, you just use them all and ignore who the player is.

Diamondbacks LL

  • Larry Linke
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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #31 on: 14 Jan 2016 2:26:30 PM »
Another factor (and most importantly to me) is that Arizona is considered a small market team. I get the 10th pick in the winter draft which places me in the bottom third of salary cap. I cannot afford to pay Trout appx 50 M for one more year of service. He will be signed to a LTC prior to the start of the year.

What is good for me is that after the 3rd year of his contract I can open up my own version of the Mike Trout sweepstakes.

With the debate about values placed on prospects, I for one tend to lean towards guys that are in AA or AAA.

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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #32 on: 14 Jan 2016 3:07:48 PM »
I don't really have a problem with WANG's study in the fact that his final inclusion on the list is pretty representative of his value than earlier ones.

Look at my prospect Jurickson Profar ?

He was the #1 overall prospect in the game.... Should he be valued with that ? Or should he be valued with his upcoming rankings that he will get (which I assume will be in the 20's) when he starts rehabbing his shoulder in the minors for a season. He is still just 22 years old.

Understanded... he has had some circumstances that led him to drop... but those circumstances can't be ignored.
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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #33 on: 14 Jan 2016 3:14:41 PM »
Ouch, that's terrible.  That's definitely not the way I calculate prospect value.  I don't care who the prospect is - each year's Top 100 list is basically 100 instances of data to be used by the model, and if we happen to get the same player appearing multiple times, you just use them all and ignore who the player is.

Yep, exactly.

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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #34 on: 15 Jan 2016 8:07:12 AM »
General rule of thumb for me, whoever gets the best player generally will win the trade unless they significantly overpaid. But that isn't a condemnation of the trade in any way. As Atticus mentioned, polls are meaningless, winning games is what is important.  Given the circumstances the Mariners found themselves in, I think they did quite well working through a complicated deal.

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Re: Biggest. Deal. Ever.
« Reply #35 on: 20 Jan 2016 4:06:29 PM »
Ouch, that's terrible.  That's definitely not the way I calculate prospect value.  I don't care who the prospect is - each year's Top 100 list is basically 100 instances of data to be used by the model, and if we happen to get the same player appearing multiple times, you just use them all and ignore who the player is.

Terrible is an understatement. That undermines the whole point of the study (or at least what I understand to be the point) by throwing out a biased sample of data points.

In particular, it is almost certainly misrepresenting the value of a young prospect ranked anywhere outside the elite tiers. If he fares well he is very likely to climb in the rankings and thus have his low ranking simply discarded. Which means that the actual "76-100" category includes only older prospects whose rookie eligibility expired the following season and players who fell off the list and never made a reappearance.

That's just ugly.