Author Topic: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays  (Read 1368 times)

Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« on: 12 Oct 2015 11:22:24 AM »
It's early still, I know, but I was doing the research anyway and though that I might as well put it down here.

2015 didn't go quite as well as expected, but all-in-all I'm happy with where I ended, especially given the horrible start. But 2015 all along was expected to be a year to consolidate/build for 2016. How did it go from that perspective?

Part I: infield

C:

A.J Ellis: 112 OPS+. Ellis finally had the type of year I was hoping for/expecting when I signed him to the FA contract. I'm guessing he'll project to about a 90 OPS+ in 2016, will will probably make him a decent backup for...

Austin Barnes: .315/.389/.479 in AAA; 12-2 SB-CS. Barnes does a little bit of everything - hits for average, hits for power, draws walks, doesn't strike out much, steals the occasional base. He'll probably be starting for me in 2016. Probably projects to a 95-100 OPS+.

1B:

Lots of options here, some better than others.

Edwin Encarnacion: 153 OPS+ in 2015. The best hitter on the team, he'll be starting at 1B or DH, depending on how the rest of the crew shakes out. Should project to a 135-140 OPS+.

Ryan Zimmerman: 105 OPS+ in 2015. His contract is bad, and was looking absolutely terrible when he put up a 70 OPS+ in the first half before getting injured. He hit the lights out of the ball after returning, though, to end up with decent numbers overall (before getting hurt again). He'll probably project to about a 110 OPS+ in 2016. I'm curious to see if he gets rated defensively anywhere other than 1B.

Chris Colabello: 142 OPS+ in 2015. Colabello is a bit of a wildcard for 2016, given his up-and-down (and limited) track record and age. He's a lock to project above a 100 OPS+, and I think there's a good chance he could be above 110.

C.J. Cron: 106 OPS+ in 2015. Cron basically repeated his 2014 performance in 2015; that should probably drag his 2016 projection up into the 105 OPS+ range.

Chris Carter: 100 OPS+ in 2015. Carter was hitting very poorly when I picked him up from the Tigers - I was hoping for a strong finish to the season, and I got it. I'd guess a 110-115 OPS+ projection in 2016, and defensive ratings fit for a DH.

Kennys Vargas: 69 OPS+ in 2015; .283/.414/.490 at AA-AAA. Vargas started the year in the majors, and sucked. He hit the cover off the ball at AA-AAA, though, which will help salvage his 2016 projection a little bit. He'll probable project to around a 90 OPS+, which combined with my depth means he'll be on the reserve roster.

2B:

Howie Kendrick: 107 OPS+ in 2015. Another solid season from Kendrick, who should end up in the 105-110 OPS+ range in 2016, with average-ish defense.

Jonathan Schoop: 110 OPS+ in 2015. Schoop had a good 2015 with the batch, and I'd guess he'll project to a 90-95 OPS+ in 2016. Combine that with a probably VG rating at 2B, and picking between Kendrick and Schoop for a starter could be challenging.

Zach Walters: A year to forget for Walters, who didn't hit anywhere in 2015. He'll be on the reserve roster in 2016, hoping for a bounceback season.

3B:

Anthony Rendon: 91 OPS+ in 2015. Not what I was hoping for from Rendon - he was hurt, and didn't hit much when he was capable of playing. His stellar 2014 probably drags his 2016 projection up into the 105-110 OPS+.

Colin Moran: .306/.381/.459 in AA. Moran started out very cold in 2015 - .261/.323/.348 prior to the all-star break, and I was seriously considering cutting him to make room for draft picks. I'm glad I kept him around, though - .333/.416/.526 in the second half. He'll be on the reserve roster in 2016, and hopefully hit closer to his second half numbers.

SS:

Marcus Semien: 95 OPS+ in 2015. Offensively, Semien should project to a 95-100 OPS+ in 2016. Whether or not he plays depends on how he gets rated defensively: Total Zone had him 7 runs below average (mostly due to a high error count); BIS had him 4 runs better than average; UZR had him 10 runs below average (pretty much all due to the errors).

Nick Ahmed: 70 OPS+ in 2015. Ahmed is Semien's mirror image: can't hit, but very good glove, with the advanced defensive rating systems having him +15 to +25 runs better than average.

not a pretty picture at SS - Semien is probably better used as a utility infielder, and Ahmed as a defensive replacement. Probably an area to look to improve in the offseason.

so, with what I have now, my projected infield looks something like:

DH: Encarnacion (~135 OPS+)
C: Barnes (~95 OPS+)/Ellis (~90 OPS+)
1B: Zimmerman (~110 OPS+, AV)
2B: Kendrick (~105 OPS+, AV)/Schoop (90 OPS+, VG)
3B: Rendon (~105 OPS+, AV)
SS: Semien (~95 OPS+, AV range, high error rating)/Ahmed (70 OPS+, VG)
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Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #1 on: 13 Oct 2015 12:44:08 PM »
Part 2: the outfield

I usually have a pretty strong outfield group, the this group as a whole underperformed/disappointed in 2015.

LF

Scott Van Slyke: 95 OPS+ in 2015. A down season from Van Slyke with the bat, but his excellent 2013 and 2014 seasons should still drag his projections up to the 110-115 OPS+ range. His defensive rating could be interesting, though: adjusted for a full season's worth of playing time, the advanced defenive metrics have him at +36 runs (total zone), +43 runs (BIS), and +30 runs (UZR).

Chris Colabello should also get rated at LF and RF, but the ratings will probably be bad enough that I won't want to use him.

CF

Michael Bourn: 64 OPS+ in 2015. Ouch, that really hurts. Figure his previous performance drags that up to an 80 OPS+ for 2016. Even worse, the defensive numbers probably result in an AV rating. He should get rated at both CF and RF, though, which means he could end up as a 4th/5th OF.

Scott Schebler: Schebler put up a disappointing .241/.322/.410 at AAA in 2015. On the up side, he should get rated at all 3 OF positions defensively. He probably doesn't project well enough to play in 2016, though he could end up in the 4th/5th OF role if Bourn gets cut to clear roster space.

RF

Kole Calhoun: 104 OPS+ in 2015. Calhoun had been in his typical ~120 OPS+ range for much of the season, but a cool finish dragged him down a bit. I'm projecting a 110-115 OPS+ in 2016. the decreased offensive projection could well be compensated by an improved defensive rating  - the three advanced fielding metrics had him at about +15 runs defensively.

Steven Souza: 99 OPS+ in 2015. Zips projected Souza to a 97 OPS+ in 2015, and he put up a 99. Pretty fair to say he'll come in around 100 in 2016. He only played RF in 2015, which means probably no CF rating in 2016, which means he might well end up on the reserve roster.

Yuck. Not pretty at all, though the chance of Van Slyke and Calhoun getting VG ratings means there is some upside.

so, where does that leave us:

DH: Encarnacion (~135 OPS+)
C: Barnes (~95 OPS+)
1B: Zimmerman (~110 OPS+, AV)
2B: Kendrick (~105 OPS+, AV)
3B: Rendon (~105 OPS+, AV)
SS: Semien (~95 OPS+, AV range, high error rating)
LF: Van Slyke (~110 OPS+, VG?)
CF: Bourn (~80 OPS+, AV)
RF: Calhoun (110 OPS+, VG?)

BN: Colabello (~110 OPS+, 1B, LF, RF)
BN: Carter (110 OPS+, 1B)
BN: Cron (105 OPS+, 1B)
BN: Schoop (90 OPS+, VG at 2B)
BN: Ahmed (70 OPS+, VG at SS)
BN: Ellis (~90 OPS+, AV at C)

Not bad overall, but weaknesses I'd like to address at SS and CF. I've got some depth at 1B/DH (Encarnacion, Zimmerman, Colabello, Cron, Carter) that I'll probably look to move to shore up some weaknesses.
« Last Edit: 13 Oct 2015 12:59:30 PM by Blue Jays SH »
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #2 on: 14 Oct 2015 9:56:41 AM »
Part 3: Pitching

Typically, I go into the season with a good bullpen, but a weak rotation. I think I'll still have the good bullpen in 2016, but I could have my best rotation in a long time.

SP

Mike Fiers: 109 ERA+, 99 FIP-. A solid year for Fiers, topped off with the no-hitter. With his poor 2013 falling further in the past and getting less weight, I'm hoping for a 110-115 ERA+ in 2016.

Collin McHugh: 103 ERA+, 87 FIP-. 2015 wasn't quite as good as his stellar 2014, but it was good enough, with the added bonus of his poor performances prior to 2014 getting less weight. I'm expecting a 105-110 ERA+ in 2016.

Jake Odorizzi: 118 ERA+, 91 FIP- in 2015. A very dtrong year from Odorizzi with good peripherals, should drag his projected ERA+ for 2016 up to the 100-105 range.

Anthony DeSclafani: 98 ERA+, 92 FIP-. A nice season for DeSclafani, should result in an ERA+ projection in the 95-100 range.

That's basically it as far as SP goes, with a number of replacement level arms available (Luebke, Johnson, Beachy, Martinez). No real ace among that crew, but McHugh, Fiers and Odorizzi are solidly above average, and DeSclafani doesn't kill you at the back of the rotation. I need to add another SP - ideally an ace, but a solid mid-rotation guy would also help a lot.

RP

Aaron Barrett: 88 ERA+, 58 ERA-. Barrett is the start of a theme among my relievers: mediocre ERA+s, but outstanding FIP- and peripherals. I think FIP has more predictive power for ZiPS than ERA, so I'm expecting Barrett to project to the 120-125 ERA+ range. Barrett is out for 2016 in real life, but he'll play for me.

Oliver Drake: 147 ERA+, 87 FIP- in MLB; 13.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9 in AAA. An impressive season from Drake should result in an improvement on the 110 ERA+ he was projected to in 2015 - I'm hoping for a 120-125 ERA+.

Jack Leathersich: 165 ERA+, 72 FIP- in MLB; 14.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 2.0 HR/9 in AAA. A little HR-prone in Las Vegas, but then again who isn't? I'm expecting an improvement on the 113 ERA+ he was projected to in 2015 - I'm hoping for a 120-125 ERA+. He too is out for 2016 in real life, but he'll play for me.

Junichi Tazawa: 104 ERA+, 77 FIP-. The ERA was inflated by a couple of bad outings, but the peripherals are the same as the last few years, and should result in a 120-125 ERA+ in 2016.

Jonathan Papelbon: 188 ERA+, 95 FIP-. The ERA is gaudy, but the peripherals aren't quite so good; he'll probably slip from the 123 ERA+ he was projected for in 2015, but I'm still hoping for a 110-115.

Yimi Garcia: 112 ERA+, 83 FIP-. A solid season from Garcia. He'll probably slip a bit from the 120 ERA+ he was projected for in 2015, but again I'm hoping for a 115-120.

Adam Liberatore: 89 ERA+, 88 FIP- in MLB. A decent if unspectacular season in 2015, probably good for a 105-110 ERA+ in 2016. Which isn't bad, but means he'll be on the reserve roster for me in all likelihood.

Chasen Shreve: 130 ERA+, 118 FIP-: A terrible finish to the season means that Shreve likely spends 2016 on the reserve roster, or as the garbage inning guy in the majors. Probably a 90-100 ERA+ projection.

Shae Simmons: DNP in 2015. Despite not pitching in 2015, the stats that gave him a 132 ERA+ projection for 2015 probably mean that he'll get a better than average projection for 2016. He's a wildcard and I'm not counting on him, but he could be a nice surprise for me.


So, looking at the pitching staff for 2016:

SP: Fiers (110 ERA+)
SP: McHugh (105 ERA+)
SP: Odoroizzi (100 ERA+)
SP: DeSclafani (95 ERA+)
SP: TBD

RP: Barrett (120 ERA+)
RP: Drake (120 ERA+)
RP: Leathersich (120 ERA+)
RP: Tazawa (120 ERA+)
RP: Garcia (115 ERA+)
RP: Papelbon (110 ERA+)

I need to add an SP (or two), but the bullpen is a source of strength and surplus, and could be used to help fill some holes on the roster.

All-in-all, If I go into 2016 with this roster, I'd expect to be at least as good as I was this year, and probably a little bit better. So call it "in contention", but still clearly short of what it would take to be a favorite to win the division. I've got holes at SP, CF, and SS, and if I can fill those to at least some degree, the team could be much stronger than it looks today.



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Blue Jays SH

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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #3 on: 2 Dec 2015 9:56:02 AM »
So, the ZIPs projections have started to be released, so I thought that I'd update what my 2016 roster looks like, and compare the actual Zips projections to what I had expected them to be, to see how reasonable my expectations were.

DH: Encarnacion (~135 OPS+) Actual: 140 OPS+, -2 at 1B
DH: Colabello (~110 OPS+, 1B, LF, RF) Actual: 105 OPS+, -5 at 1B
C: Barnes (~95 OPS+) Actual: 93 OPS+, 0 on D
1B: Zimmerman (~110 OPS+, AV) Actual: 105 OPS+, 0 on D
2B: Kendrick (~105 OPS+, AV) Actual: 105 OPS+, -3 on D
3B: Rendon (~105 OPS+, AV) Actual: 110 OPS+, +4 on D
SS: Semien (~95 OPS+, AV range, high error rating) Actual: 96 OPS+, -4 on D
LF: Van Slyke (~110 OPS+, VG?) Actual: 117 OPS+, +8 on D in 307 PA
CF: Nieuwenhuis: ~90 OPS+, AV-VG at all 3 OF spots Actual: 94 OPS+, -3 in 331 PA in CF on D
RF: Calhoun (110 OPS+, VG?) Actual: 111 OPS+, +5 on D

BN: Carter (110 OPS+, 1B)
BN: Cron (105 OPS+, 1B) Actual: 104 OPS+, -4 on D
BN: Schoop (90 OPS+, VG at 2B) Actual: 99 OPS+, +3 at 2B in 429 PA
BN: Ahmed (70 OPS+, VG at SS) Actual: 75 OPS+, +9 at SS in 517 PA
BN: Ellis (~90 OPS+, AV at C) Actual: 95 OPS+, -3 on D
BN: Duvall Actual: 102 OPS+; 3B/1B/LF
BN: Bourn (~80 OPS+, AV) Actual: 77 OPS+, +1 on D

RR: Walters (~85 OPS+, FR) Actual: 92 OPS+; +4 in LF
RR: Schebler (~85 OPS+, FR/AV at all 3 OF spots) Actual: 90 OPS+; -3 in RF
RR: Ravelo (~85 OPS+) Actual: 84 OPS+; -1 at 1B
RR: Vargas (~95 OPS+, FR) Actual: 93 OPS+; -3 at 1B
RR: Moran (~80 OPS+, FR) Actual: 87 OPS+; -1 at 3B
RR: Walker (~85 OPS+, FR) Actual: 74 OPS+; -4 at LF
RR: Parker (~75 OPS+, FR) Actual: 74 OPS+; -4 at LF
RR: Souza (~95 OPS+, AV) Actual: 102 OPS+, 0 on D

SP: Wainwright (~115 ERA+) Actual: 123 ERA+
SP: McHugh (~105 ERA+) Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: Odorizzi (~100 ERA+) Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: DeSclafani (~95 ERA+) Actual: 101 ERA+
SP: Fiers (~110 ERA+) Actual: 95 ERA+

RP: Barrett (~120 ERA+)  Actual: 133 ERA+
RP: Drake (~120 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Leathersich (~120 ERA+) Actual: 113 ERA+
RP: Tazawa (~120 ERA+) Actual: 114 ERA+
RP: Garcia (~115 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Papelbon (~110 ERA+)  Actual: 128 ERA+
RP: Simmons (~110 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Treinen (~110 ERA+)  Actual: 118 ERA+

RR: Beachy (~75 ERA+) Actual: 74 ERA+
RR: Johnson (~75 ERA+) Actual: 78 ERA+
RR: Luebke (~80 ERA+) Actual: 83 ERA+
RR: Liberatore (~105 ERA+) Actual: 102 ERA+
RR: Shreve (~95 ERA+) Actual: 100 ERA+
RR: Martinez (~85 ERA+) Actual: 85 ERA+
« Last Edit: 10 Feb 2016 10:30:49 AM by Blue Jays SH »
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #4 on: 2 Dec 2015 7:13:19 PM »
Good write-up, Scot.

How many power-hitting first basemen do yo plan to sign this off-season?  :)   That seems to be your forte! 

That rotation backed up by a real good bullpen should be pretty solid. 
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #5 on: 10 Feb 2016 10:42:22 AM »
And the projections are done, so the 2016 Blue Jays look something like:

C: Barnes (~95 OPS+) Actual: 93 OPS+, 0 on D
1B: Zimmerman (~110 OPS+, AV) Actual: 105 OPS+, 0 on D
2B: Kendrick (~105 OPS+, AV) Actual: 105 OPS+, -3 on D
3B: Rendon (~105 OPS+, AV) Actual: 110 OPS+, +4 on D
SS: Semien (~95 OPS+, AV range, high error rating) Actual: 96 OPS+, -4 on D
LF: Van Slyke (~110 OPS+, VG?) Actual: 117 OPS+, +8 on D in 307 PA
CF: Nieuwenhuis: ~90 OPS+, AV-VG at all 3 OF spots Actual: 94 OPS+, -3 in 331 PA in CF on D
RF: Calhoun (110 OPS+, VG?) Actual: 111 OPS+, +5 on D
DH: Colabello (~110 OPS+, 1B, LF, RF) Actual: 105 OPS+, -5 at 1B

BN: Cron (105 OPS+, 1B) Actual: 104 OPS+, -4 on D
BN: Schoop (90 OPS+, VG at 2B) Actual: 99 OPS+, +3 at 2B in 429 PA
BN: Ahmed (70 OPS+, VG at SS) Actual: 75 OPS+, +9 at SS in 517 PA
BN: Ellis (~90 OPS+, AV at C) Actual: 95 OPS+, -3 on D
BN: Duvall Actual: 102 OPS+; 3B/1B/LF

RR: Bourn (~80 OPS+, AV) Actual: 77 OPS+, +1 on D
RR: Walters (~85 OPS+, FR) Actual: 92 OPS+; +4 in LF
RR: Souza (~95 OPS+, AV) Actual: 102 OPS+, 0 on D

depending on the specifics for defensive ratings, there's a chance that Souza ends up on the 25 man roster instead of Cron. I can probably live with Semien/Ahmed as an offense/defense platoon at SS. If Souza gets a decent rating at CF, he could actually be my starter; otherwise it's Nieuwenhuis for now, though I'd like to upgrade in FA.

This is probably the weakest offense I've fielded in years. It's not a bad offense - getting an OPS+ of ~95 from C, SS, and CF isn't all that bad - but there's no real big bat at the heart of the order. That's partly compensated by the D - this could be the best defensive team I've fielded, especially with Schoop and Ahmed on the field.

SP: Wainwright (~115 ERA+) Actual: 123 ERA+
SP: McHugh (~105 ERA+) Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: Odorizzi (~100 ERA+) Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: DeSclafani (~95 ERA+) Actual: 101 ERA+
SP: Fiers (~110 ERA+) Actual: 95 ERA+

RP: Barrett (~120 ERA+)  Actual: 133 ERA+
RP: Papelbon (~110 ERA+)  Actual: 128 ERA+
RP: Garcia (~115 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Simmons (~110 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Drake (~120 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Tazawa (~120 ERA+) Actual: 114 ERA+
RP: Leathersich (~120 ERA+) Actual: 113 ERA+


RR: Treinen (~110 ERA+)  Actual: 118 ERA+
RR: Johnson (~75 ERA+) Actual: 78 ERA+
RR: Liberatore (~105 ERA+) Actual: 102 ERA+

This is easily the best pitching staff I've fielded in a long, long time. The rotation is solid top-to-bottm, and the bullpen is also strong, despite the lack of a truly dominant closer. Josh Johnson (who was actually projected to a decent FIP) is first in line for starts in case of injury, which is less than ideal; Blake Treinen would make most other team's bullpens, but there's just not room for him in Toronto.

So, where does all this put me? It's a good team, but not a great team. I should hopefully hang in contention for the wildcard all season, and with a few breaks might even be in the running for the AL East title.

Scot.
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #6 on: 1 Mar 2016 2:30:59 PM »
So, a few changes in the last few weeks:

C: Barnes Actual: 93 OPS+, 0 on D/ Ellis Actual: 95 OPS+, -3 on D time share
1B: Votto Actual: 153 OPS+, +3 on D
2B: Kendrick Actual: 105 OPS+, -3 on D
3B: Rendon Actual: 110 OPS+, +4 on D
SS: Semien Actual: 96 OPS+, -4 on D
LF: Van Slyke Actual: 117 OPS+, +8 on D in 307 PA
CF: Nieuwenhuis: Actual: 94 OPS+, -3 in 331 PA in CF on D
RF: Calhoun Actual: 111 OPS+, +5 on D
DH: Rodriguez Actual: 115 OPS+

Big improvements to the starting lineup with the addition of Votto and (to a lesser extent) Rodriguez.

BN: Souza Actual: 102 OPS+, 0 on D
BN: Zimmerman Actual: 105 OPS+, 0 on D
BN: Ahmed (70 OPS+, VG at SS) Actual: 75 OPS+, +9 at SS in 517 PA
BN: Duvall Actual: 102 OPS+; 3B/1B/LF or Colabello Actual: 105 OPS+, -5 at 1B

Depending on defensive ratings, there's a chance that Souza ends up starting over Nieuwenhuis (if Souza gets rated at CF). Which one of Duvall or Colabello (or possibly Walters) gets the last spot on the bench depends on defensive ratings. In any case, Ahmed will be the only guy on the bench who doesn't have value as a PH - he'll primarily be a late-inning defensive replacement for Semien.

RR: Cron (105 OPS+, 1B) Actual: 104 OPS+, -4 on D
RR: Bourn (~80 OPS+, AV) Actual: 77 OPS+, +1 on D
RR: Walters (~85 OPS+, FR) Actual: 92 OPS+; +4 in LF
RR: Schoop (90 OPS+, VG at 2B) Actual: 99 OPS+, +3 at 2B in 429 PA

Some useful depth on the reserve roster.

SP: Wainwright Actual: 123 ERA+
SP: McHugh Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: Odorizzi Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: DeSclafani Actual: 101 ERA+
SP: Fiers Actual: 95 ERA+

I wish DMB allowed more options in terms of starting lineup construction. If it did, Nick Ahmed would start at SS every Wainwright start, to put his glove on the field for all the ground balls Wainwright produces.

RP: Barrett Actual: 133 ERA+
RP: Papelbon Actual: 128 ERA+
RP: Garcia Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Drake Actual: 120 ERA+
RP: Tazawa Actual: 114 ERA+
RP: Leathersich Actual: 113 ERA+


RR: Simmons (~110 ERA+) Actual: 120 ERA+
RR: Treinen (~110 ERA+)  Actual: 118 ERA+
RR: Johnson (~75 ERA+) Actual: 78 ERA+

Simmons and Treinen belong on a 25 man roster, but they're crowded out in Toronto.

Scot.
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #7 on: 2 Mar 2016 8:11:30 AM »
That is a solid foundation....only real hole I see is SS, but otherwise a very solid deep team, and after seeing it laid out, I really like the addition of Votto for you.

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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #8 on: 2 Mar 2016 10:20:06 AM »
Really nice-looking, balanced team.  Going to do some damage, Scot.  Good work!
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #9 on: 22 Mar 2016 3:12:33 PM »
A final update before the season starts.

C: Barnes Actual: 93 OPS+, 0 on D/ Ellis Actual: 95 OPS+, -3 on D time share
1B: Votto Actual: 153 OPS+, +3 on D
2B: Kendrick Actual: 105 OPS+, -3 on D
3B: Rendon Actual: 110 OPS+, +4 on D
SS: Semien Actual: 96 OPS+, -4 on D
LF: Van Slyke Actual: 117 OPS+, +8 on D in 307 PA
CF: Span Actual: 103 OPS+, -2 on D
RF: Calhoun Actual: 111 OPS+, +5 on D
DH: Quentin Actual: 115 OPS+

BN: Gutierrez Actual: 102 OPS+, -2 on D
BN: Zimmerman Actual: 105 OPS+, 0 on D
BN: Ahmed Actual: 75 OPS+, +9 at SS in 517 PA
BN: Duvall Actual: 102 OPS+; 3B/1B/LF or Colabello Actual: 105 OPS+, -5 at 1B

I didn't manage to upgrade at SS, so I'll likely go with an offense/defense platoon of Semien and Ahmed at short. Gutierrez gives me some depth in the OF (though his signing was more about what I hope to get in 2017 and 2018 than what I'm getting in 2016), and Zimmerman is a nice bat on the bench. The last spot on the roster will depend on which of Duvall or Colabello gets the most useful defensive ratings.

RR: Souza Actual: 102 OPS+, 0 on D
RR: Schoop Actual: 99 OPS+, +3 at 2B in 429 PA
RR: Walters Actual: 92 OPS+; +4 in LF
RR: Nieuwenhuis: Actual: 94 OPS+, -3 in 331 PA in CF on D
RR: Bourn  Actual: 77 OPS+, +1 on D

Some useful depth on the reserve roster. Souza and Schoop in particular could be starting elsewhere.

SP: Wainwright Actual: 123 ERA+
SP: McHugh Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: Odorizzi Actual: 107 ERA+
SP: DeSclafani Actual: 101 ERA+
SP: Fiers Actual: 95 ERA+

RP: Barrett Actual: 133 ERA+
RP: Drake Actual: 120 ERA+
RR: Simmons Actual: 120 ERA+
RR: Treinen Actual: 118 ERA+
RP: Tazawa Actual: 114 ERA+
RP: Leathersich Actual: 113 ERA+

RR: Johnson (~75 ERA+) Actual: 78 ERA+

Hopefully my team doesn't go 0-for-April again to start the year.

Scot.
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Re: An early look forward at the 2016 Blue Jays
« Reply #10 on: 11 Apr 2016 4:38:13 PM »
A few changes after looking everything over.

Colabello up, Duvall down. This is basically the "bat on the bench" position, and Colabello's higher OBP makes him more suited to that role. Neither of them should ever wear a glove.

Ahmed down, Walters up. As much as I love Ahmed's glove (VG at both 2B and SS), with the short benches these days Walters' defensive flexibility (AV at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and FR at RF) is probably more valuable.

Platoons! at DH, it looks like Zimmerman vs L (.266/.339/.440) and Quentin vs R (.241/.337/.448). Zimmerman getting a rating at 3B makes him Rendon's backup, and allows me to send down Duvall. In CF, it looks like it'll be Gutierrerz ve LHP (.255/.308/.469) and Span vs RHP (.285/.337/.399), with Gutierrez also getting time as a defensive replacement (AV/119 with a VG arm). A Van Slyke-Gutierrez-Calhoun OF has VG arms in all 3 spots.

4 VG ratings in the starting lineup (Barnes, Votto, Rendon, Van Slyke), with the other 4 AV. Semien's AV/138 is probably the only below-average performance I'll get on D.

Scot.
AL East champion 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2016
AL Champion 2003, 2004, 2006
WS champion 2004, 2006