Author Topic: Chavez Ravine Draft Recap (Part Two)  (Read 669 times)

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Chavez Ravine Draft Recap (Part Two)
« on: 12 Jul 2015 12:58:00 PM »
While the first three rounds of the Dodgers' draft generally featured longer term investment in youth, the final two rounds predominately landed players who will either make their active roster debut no later than 2017 or will drift onto the list of available free agents.  Four of the six players selected by the Dodgers in the 4th and 5th rounds likely fit that description.

Overall, the Dodgers' late round additions consist of:

Round 4, Pick 1-1B Christopher Shaw
Round 4, Pick 4-RHP Cody Anderson
Round 4, Pick 11-C Elias Diaz
Round 5, Pick 5-RHP Tyler Duffey
Round 5, Pick 11-LHP Dillon Overton
Round 5, Pick 21-1B Justin Bour

The first of three Fourth Round picks, Chris Shaw's calling card is a power bat, and his ability to bring the sort of production shown at Boston College and the Cape Cod League into pro ball will determine his value to the MLB Giants and the DMBO Dodgers.  Forty six at bats in 11 games need not define a career, but a .283/.377/.413/.790 line for a 21-year old playing in the Northwest League may be a call to "pick it up a bit, son"....especially for someone whose Twitter handle is Shawsome24.

As noted above in the statement about expectations for realized short term returns from the late rounds, four of the final five selections (Anderson, Duffey, Diaz, and Bour) were drafted to be "part of the discussion" in roster determination of the 2016 DMBO Dodgers.  Duffey and Diaz aren't yet at the MLB level, but both are performing well in AAA.  Diaz was eyed as a potential 5th round selection, but once he was named to the Futures Game roster, I moved him up the board to fend off other potential interest.  He is a very good defensive catcher with a cannon of a throwing arm, and has a chance to be a serviceable hitter.

Duffey has logged more than 100 innings in 2015 as a starting pitcher in the Twins' system, in a near-equal split between AA and AAA with nearly identical results at each level.  Overall, a 2.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP offer an indication that Duffey is ready for his MLB debut.  Whether that will occur for the Twins, or elsewhere is something that may be answered over the next couple weeks with the MLB trading deadline approaching and Minnesota definitely in the hunt for a playoff slot.

Cody Anderson's MLB rookie season through this writing consists of 30.1 innings deep over four starts, resulting in two wins, a 0.89 ERA and A 0.659 WHIP.  The clock will strike midnight sooner or later, but I like Anderson to fit into the 2016 rotation, and likely for a few years forward.  He doesn't miss many bats, but Anderson knows how to pitch and is still making the transition from reliever to starter.

The outlier of the Dodgers' 5th round of the 2015 draft was LHP Dillon Overton from the Athletics' system.  Along with Chris Shaw taken in the 4th, Overton is one of two Dodgers' selections the final two rounds who do not have an expectation placed upon them be MLB-ready no later than 2017.  Overton's debut isn't anticipated before 2018 or even later.

Some may remember the Overton of a few years ago before injury took away peak effectiveness and eventually required Tommy John surgery.  Before that, Overton was good enough to split time with Jon Gray as the Oklahoma Sooners' Friday night starter, with the other getting Saturday's game.  Overton's pre-injury fastball hasn't fully returned, but his 2015 season has already included the survival of the Death Valley for pitchers known as the California League, and is now two starts deep in the Texas League.  In each of those, he went five full innings yielding one earned run during the initial start and two in the more recent for a 2.70/1.30 line at AA.  His journey will continue to be interesting to watch.

Finally, Justin Bour's selection likely drew some scoffs, but since the software doesn't seem to factor batter ineptness against same-sided pitching to the same degree as is the case in reality the hope is that he can minimally provide adequate backup production at 1B in 2016.  If the software doesn't end up penalizing Bour for near-total inability to hit LH pitching he may end up providing passable output for a starter.

Looking at the nine to ten first basemen who are likely apt to be free agents after the 2015 season, a couple seemed likely candidates to garner well-deserved big ticket contracts and the balance perhaps more compromise than prized targets.  So with the choice of accepting an overpriced contract option with Napoli, being forced into one or more of the aforementioned free agency scenarios, or picking up a cost-controlled candidate, the decision became much easier to make.