Author Topic: 2015 Indians preview  (Read 820 times)

Indians RH (Ret)

  • Randy Haase
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2015 Indians preview
« on: 30 Sep 2014 10:44:16 PM »
Piggybacking off of Jon's format.......


Expiring Contracts:

Justin Masterson
Jesse Chavez
Nick Swisher
Justin Sellers
Ryan Sweeney
Jeff Francouer

Masterson is the only guy here who will be remotely difficult to replace.  He simmed extremely well for me in 2014, but he struggled in real-life, so it's probably just as well that he won't be back.




Options:

David Ortiz ($12.9 mil)

Ortiz regressed to a 143 OPS+ in real-life.   I don't consider this a no-brainer decision, but I'd say there's a pretty good chance that Ortiz will be back in 2015.  Part of that will depend on how the budget numbers look when they are released.  I don't figure to be in a numbers-pinch, but if I end up needing the cash, I could potentially use a guy like Chris Carter in the DH role next year.




Arbitration Decisions:

Jeremy Hellickson
Brett Cecil
Josh Collmenter
Kenley Jansen
Alex Avila
Chris Carter
Juan Francisco


Some of these guys are going to be tough calls.  To be honest, there's not a single guy here who couldn't play a key role for the 2015 Indians, but it may be difficult to justify the demands on some of them.  For the purpose of projecting my 2015 roster, I'm going to assume that the 2015 budget will find room for all of these guys, but that could obviously change once the actually demands and budget numbers are released.



*2015 Zips Projections in red


The Rotation: (2014 ERA+, IP)

Carlos Carrasco (146 / 134.0)  (101 ERA+)
Jake Peavy (100 / 202.2)  (103 ERA+)
Cliff Lee (102 / 81.1)  (108 ERA+)
Kyle Lohse (107 / 198.1)  (99 ERA+)
Josh Collmenter (108 / 179.1)   (100 ERA+)
Tyler Skaggs (85 / 113.0)  (93 ERA+)'
Jeremy Hellickson (82 / 63.2)  (87 ERA+) 
Rubby DeLarosa (87 / 101.2)   (89 ERA+)

There's lots of static in this group of players.  Both Skaggs (Tommy John surgery) and Cliff Lee (elbow fatigue) had their 2014 seasons shorted in real-life.   That is worrisome from a 2015 projection standpoint.  Carlos Carrasco finally lived up to his stuff in 2014, and he was lights-out.......... but he's not going to project at a 146 ERA+ in 2015, obviously.  Delarosa and Hellickson both returned from injury in 2014, but neither of them showed much promise.  I've got some things to sort out here, and may even need to add a piece or two to the puzzle, but I think the rotation would be serviceable, at the very least, as is.



The Bullpen: (2014 ERA+)


Kenly Jansen (127)   (162 ERA+)
Dellin Betances (277)  (165 ERA+)
Kelvin Herrera (282)   (134 ERA+) 
Burke Badenhop (169)  (114 ERA+)
Zach Britton (233)  (123 ERA+)
Brett Cecil (145)  (115 ERA+)
Jeremy Hellickson (82)  (87 ERA+) 



The bullpen is really good, no two ways about it.  Definitely the strength of the team.   Whichever one of the rotation options doesn't make the cut, will probably land in the bullpen, as well.



The Lineup: (2014 OPS+ / WAR)

C: Alex Avila (91 OPS+ / 2.1 WAR)  (94 OPS+ / -1 Def.) or Stephen Vogt (112 OPS+ / 1.3 WAR)  (93 OPS+ / -1 Def.)
1B: Michael Cuddyer  (151 OPS+ / 1.5 WAR)  (117 OPS+ / -8 Def.)
2B: Jason Kipnis (85 OPS+ / 1.0 WAR)  (104 OPS+ / -5 Def.)
3B: Nolan Arenado (116 OPS+ / 3.1 WAR)   (102 OPS+ / +11 Def.)
SS: Erick Aybar (101 OPS+ / 4.1 WAR)  (98 OPS+ / -2 Def.)
LF:  Chris Young (95 OPS+ / .4 WAR)  (94 OPS+ / +8 Def.)
CF: Kevin Kiermaier (117 OPS+ / 3.8 WAR)  (97 OPS+ / +6 Def.)
RF: Giancarlo Stanton (160 OPS+ / 6.1 WAR)  (151 OPS+ / +4 Def.)
DH: David Ortiz (143 OPS+ / 2.4 WAR)  (141 OPS+)

There are a lot of interchangeable parts here, and decisions will obviously be made after projections are released.  Juan Francisco could be included in a 1st base platoon. Arismendy Alcantara or Michael Taylor  could spend some time in CF.   Stephen Vogt could end up at 1st base.  However it unfolds, I think it has the makings of a serviceable lineup.  Jason Kipnis was a real disappointment in 2014, which really gives the lineup a black eye.  I'm hoping his 2015 projection is favorable, nonetheless.  I'm obviously in the market for a SS, either through free agency or trade, but Alcantara could probably play there in a pinch.



Bench:

Arismendy Alcantara
Juan Francisco
Nick Swisher (100 OPS+)
Stephen Vogt  (93 OPS+)
Eric Campbell  (95 OPS+)
Chris Carter (114 OPS+)


Overall, I'd like a little more dependable top of the rotation, and possibly a defensive upgrade at 1B, but I think the 2015 version of the Indians should be as competitive as the 2014 version, if not moreso.  Unfortunately, the Twins are easily the class of the division again, so I'm hoping to battle for another Wild Card berth.
« Last Edit: 13 Feb 2015 12:16:04 PM by Indians RH »
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Royals JC (Ret)

  • Jon Carney
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Re: 2015 Indians preview
« Reply #1 on: 1 Oct 2014 8:52:49 AM »
Ugh...seeing this and the MIN outlook just puts the nail in the coffin that rebuilding was the right this to do.  This is already a really nice roster that would contend in any division that didn't have a probable 100-105 game winner in it.
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Re: 2015 Indians preview
« Reply #2 on: 1 Oct 2014 10:38:48 AM »
Randy will just have to earn his ALDS every year with a crazy wildcard win.

It really is an exciting roster for 2015.  These are good times in DMBO's Cleveland.