Author Topic: 2013 REDS team outlook(updated)  (Read 1081 times)

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2013 REDS team outlook(updated)
« on: 16 Dec 2013 5:52:19 PM »
With the end of Tier 2, this is your 2014 Reds:

Rotation:             FIP/ERA+/zWAR

S1:Homer Bailey  3.44/114/3.5
S2:Shelby Miller   3.59/111/3.2
S3:Tom Milone*    3.80/102/2.3
S4:Tyson Ross     3.75/91/.8
S5:Chad Gaudin 3.79/96/0.5
     
(FA acquisition and crap shoot: Miguel A Gonzalez  disappointing 4.47/82/.4  Hopefully he makes it in majors in 2014)

Depth:  Tanner Roark/ 4.20/92/1.0

Bullpen:
R1:Koji Uhera          2.03/203/1.4
R2:Jason Grilli         2.49/134/.7
R3:Eric Oflaherty*    3.09/129/.6
R4:Christian Garcia  3.76/106/.3
R5:Rich Hill*            3.74/105/.2
R6:Faustno de Los Santos  3.44/101/.1

Depth:Ryan Webb             4.10/100/.2
          Michael Bowden      4.12/98/.2   
              Scott Atchinson  3.52/95/0

                    OPS+/Def/zWAR
Batters:
C:Hundley/         89/3/1.7
   Herrmann        68/1/1.1
1B:Freeman      128/1/3.2
2B:Valbuena       92/5/1.9
SS:Jed Lowerie  107/-6/2.4
3B:Moustakas     96/3/2.3
LF:Willingham/  114/-6/2.4
     Maybin.         95/2/1.8
CF:Billy Hamilton 84/4/2.5
RF:Pence           112/0/2.6


Bench bats:
Darwin Barney  77/10/1.6
Eziquel Carerra 79/2/1.5
Stephen Pearce 100/0/.3
Danny Valencia 91/-3/.9
Chris Parmalee  93/-1/.6

Lineup:
1:Billy Hamilton CF
2:Freddie Freeman 1B
3:Hunter Pence RF
4:Josh Willingham LF
5:Mike Moustakas 3B
6:Jed Lowrie SS
7:Nick Hundley C
8:Luis Valbuena 2B
9:


Analysis:  Reds will struggle to get to .500  Coming off a season in which lineup produced in top 3 in league but pitching alllowed more runs than a cricket side, it will be something in the middle for both.

As, Bailey, Miller and Milone all look to be improvement on last year and the addition Tyson Ross in Zimmerman trade to the rotation,  the Reds pitching should be less of a doormat.

The late FA addition of Chad Gaudin to back of rotation allows he and winter draftee Tanner Roark to provide SP depth.

The bullpen will be less of a doormat with legit shutdown guy in Uhera fronted by Grilli and O Flaherty.

On the offensive side the Reds would be happy to just go sideways, but will probably see some slippage with the departure of Mesoraco who despite his woes in r.l. pounded in sim and Ryan Zimmerman who took his contract to LA.

With an underwhelming ZIP for Wilin Rosario the Reds are likely to start FA Hundley in hopes that one more year of solid production in real life (while saving a DMBO year) will benefit Rosario.

Of course shipping out Zimmerman leaves a downgrade at 3B in Moustakas, but hoping Jed Lowrie's bat provides an upgrade at SS (despite his glove, kind of whiffed on that rating).  Looks like a platoon at 2B.  Barney will try to make up for bat with plus/plus defense at 2B and Valbuena will bounce between 2b and 3b.

OF is a middling with a pair of almost sluggers in corners Pence and the slothful Willingham, three decent defenders in Maybin and Carrera and the kid Hamilton (who might not have the OBP to support top of lineup placement).  Maybin and Carrera could get some signifcant time in left vs LHP and in interleague. 

.500 team?  Hope to make it closer with better start than 2013.
« Last Edit: 14 Mar 2014 10:07:49 AM by Reds MP »
Michael Phillips
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Marlins JM

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Re: 2013 team outlook
« Reply #1 on: 16 Dec 2013 6:38:10 PM »
Wow...


Let me crunch some numbers...


That looks like a 74 win team to me !


I can pretty much guarantee it !

2013 Reds...74 wins.


Take that to the bank!!!!
Losingest team in DMBO History... by an ASSLOAD

Reds MP

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Re: 2013 team outlook
« Reply #2 on: 16 Dec 2013 8:42:21 PM »
Thanks for the in depth anyalsis (albeit accurate at the moment)
Michael Phillips
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Re: 2013 team outlook
« Reply #3 on: 16 Dec 2013 8:43:29 PM »
Wow...


Let me crunch some numbers...


That looks like a 74 win team to me !


I can pretty much guarantee it !

2013 Reds...74 wins.


Take that to the bank!!!!

So you think I only have to add 7 wins to be .500 team.  Whoohaa
Michael Phillips
GM, Cincinnati Reds

Marlins JM

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Re: 2013 team outlook
« Reply #4 on: 16 Dec 2013 9:13:44 PM »
Actually...I based it on the fact your 2013 Reds team DID have 74 wins 8)

2014....I'm not so sure though...



Once again, I do realize how much of an ass I am.
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Re: 2013 REDS team outlook
« Reply #5 on: 18 Dec 2013 11:11:48 PM »
How did this team get so young all of a sudden?

And - man, if Tyson Ross's velocity increase from last year holds, what a great front of the rotation you could have by 2015 with him and Shelby Miller.