Author Topic: 2013 Outlook  (Read 598 times)

Red Sox KN

  • Kris Neild
  • EC
  • All-Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 356
2013 Outlook
« on: 1 Mar 2013 2:50:33 PM »
Projected Rotatation:
Mat Latos 118 ERA+, 5 WAR in 220 IP
John Danks 98 ERA+, 3.2 WAR in 200 IP
Clay Buchholz 104 ERA+, 3.4 WAR in 180 IP
Wade Davis 95 ERA+ 2.2, WAR in 180 IP
Rick Porcello 89 ERA+ 1.4, WAR in 160 IP

Comments:
Not the best rotation but am excited about the upside of Wade Davis, and the ability of Porcello to keep the ball on the ground. Danks was my favorite signing of the off-season. Here's to hoping he stays healthy IRL.
~15.2 WAR

Projected Bullpen:
Jim Johnson 113 ERA+
Pedro Strop 106 ERA+
Luis Ayala 106 ERA+
Tateyama 102 ERA+
Scott Downs 107 ERA+
Kevin Jepsen 96 ERA+
John Lackey 83 ERA+

Comments:
An average half-Orioles bullpen led by a closer who doesn't really strike people out. Probably will adjust settings to make sure these guys are used as little as possible. Though Lackey will start the year in the minors, I can unfortunately see him getting a handful of starts and middle relief innings over the course of the year.
~3.5 WAR

Projected Lineup
CF Michael Bourn - 96 OPS+, 12 DR, 4 WAR
3B David Wright - 122 OPS+, -1 DR, 4 WAR
RF Matt Kemp - 144 OPS+, 5 WAR (shouldn't be a -5 DR in RF)
DH Carlos Quentin - 132 OPS+, 3.8 WAR (for 550 PA and no defense, tho he might play some for IL)
1B Mark Reynolds - 108 OPS+, 2 WAR (conservatively assuming a -9 DR for 1B)
LF Starling Marte - 102 OPS+, 3 DR, 2.6 WAR
C Geovany Soto - 88 OPS+, -2 DR, 1.5 WAR
SS Chase D'Arnaud - 75 OPS+, 1 DR, 1.7 WAR
2B Freddy Galvis - 81 OPS+, 7 DR, 1.3 WAR

Comments:
Decided to save loot up the middle and go for using my last two winter draft choices. Chase is super efficient on the bases and hopefully can steal 20 while providing adequate D. One of the stronger 1-6s I've had in Sox history. Hopefully they won't be too neutralized by the Yanks staff.
~25.9 WAR

Projected Bench:
Roger Bernadina - 91 OPS+, .45 WAR in 150 ab
Robert Andino - 73 OPS+ (a bad bet from last year's FA, hopefully has some rating at SS)
Casey Kotchman - 94 OPS+, .23 WAR in 150 ab
Miguel Olivo - 89 OPS+, .44 WAR in 150 ab

Comments:
May decide to give Kotchman more at-bats, depending on how Reynolds gets rated defensively. Could be in trouble backing up SS if both Andino/Galvis get crappy/no ratings there.
~ 1 WAR

Overall
Roughly a 90 win team by my estimations, but my estimations have been known to overstate in the past. Factor in playing some really good teams in the AL East a bunch of times, and this number will trend lower. Will hope to play for one of the Wild Card spots.