Author Topic: Twins 2013 Outlook  (Read 1269 times)

Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Twins 2013 Outlook
« on: 4 Sep 2012 1:33:23 PM »
Figured I would look at 2013, and what pieces I already have in place:

2013 ZiPs Slash, OPS+, DEF, ~WAR/650 PA:

2b - Ian Kinsler - .266/.346/.443, 106, VG/127, 3.8
RF - Martin Prado - .293/.339/.434, 105, VG/105, EX Arm, ~3.5
1b - Anthony Rizzo - .279/.349/.503, 129, AV/133, 4.0
DH - Jonny Gomes - ..240/.332/.423, 101, 1.0
LF - Xavier Paul - .261/.311/.404, 90, AV/97, VG Arm, 1.0
SS - Zack Cozart - .252/.298/.403, 85, VG/96, 2.7
3b - Matt Dominguez - .251/.296/.383, 85, VG/98, 2.1
C - Henry Blanco - .239/.299/.408, 89, VG/77, EX Arm, 3.4
CF - Franklin Gutierrez - .243/.293/.364, 86, VG/49, VG Arm, 2.7


Bench:

C -Dioner Navarro -.246/.305/.374, 84, AV/95, AV Arm
UT - Wilson Betemit - .249/.314/.420, 99
UT - Dan Murphy - .282/.325/.397, 99
OF - Alex Presley - .263/.311/.420, 100


Starting Pitching: ERA, K/9, ERA+, Expected WAR (Varied IP)

Yu Darvish - 3.40, 10.54 K/9, 130, 6.8
Francisco Liriano - 3.72, 9.00 K/9, 99, 2.7
Chris Capuano - 4.11, 7.38 K/9, 91, 1.8
Aaron Harang - 4.25, 6.25 K/9, 87, 1.4
Mike Pelfrey - 4.82, 4.83 K/9, 85, 1.2



Relief Pitching: ERA, K/9, ERA+, Expected WAR (Varyied IP)

Brad Holt - 4.91, 6.71 K/9, 77, -0.5
Michael Stutes - 4.46, 8.51 K/9, 87, 0.0
Tanner Scheppers - 4.71, 7.07 K/9, 94, 0.3
Rich Hill - 3.95, 9.56 K/9, 100, 0.5
Bobby Parnell - 3.49, 8.53 K/9, 108, 1.0
Donnie Veal - 4.12, 8.39 K/9, 107, 0.9
Brayan Villarreal - 3.53, 10.89 K/9, 119, 1.5




The offense won't scare anybody, but it should produce a few runs per game. The pitching is far from stellar, but Darvish and Liriano will hold their own. The defense will give this team a boost with plus gloves in all the important places and VG or EX arms all across the OF and behind the dish.
« Last Edit: 29 Mar 2013 1:26:09 AM by Twins BS »

Cardinals

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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #1 on: 4 Sep 2012 2:17:02 PM »
There are several interesting, possibly low-cost shortstops slated to enter free agency this off-season, such as Stephen Drew and J.J. Hardy.  I think the Twins could quietly put together a very solid team.  It won't win any pennants, but it won't be a last-place finisher either and you can finally start nudging the team's budget higher with a 75-80 win season.

Francisco Liriano's contract coming off the books after 2013 will help a ton, too.  Between that, the possibly higher budget room after a solid 2013 season for the Twins, and your young players having another year to come into their own, I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota were a dark horse wildcard candidate for 2014.

Blue Jays SH

  • Scot Hughes
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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #2 on: 4 Sep 2012 5:10:52 PM »
Should be an interesting off-season, financially. Looks like opening day payrolls in MLB were up about 4.1 percent 2012 over 2011, so we should see the overall number increase by about that much in DMBO. To counter that, though, the DMBO minimum salary (and therefore the salaries of all pre-arb and arbitration eligible players) could increase by up to 20% to bring DMBO back in line with MLB. And a potentially new LTC process. Should be interesting.

Scot.
AL East champion 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2016
AL Champion 2003, 2004, 2006
WS champion 2004, 2006

Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #3 on: 8 Nov 2012 2:23:18 PM »
Updated with some ZiPS projections.

Looking like the average team I figured it to be. Rizzo getting a real nice projection, at least.

Diamondbacks LL

  • Larry Linke
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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #4 on: 8 Nov 2012 4:25:07 PM »
Where are you getting 2013 ZIPS already? Thanks.

Larry
Arizona

Cardinals

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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #5 on: 8 Nov 2012 4:27:47 PM »
ESPN Insider released AVG/OBP/SLG numbers for hitters and ERA/IP/K numbers for pitchers.  It's not ideal - only 500 or so projections, and no defensive projections, and you have no idea what he's using for the event-specific park factors - but it's at least a general idea of how the players get projected.

Cardinals

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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #6 on: 11 Nov 2012 8:46:10 PM »
I was able to estimate some rough ERA+ (and ERA-) values for the ZiPS projections.  I think the Twins' offense will actually end up looking above-average, with solid defense as well, but that rotation is going to definitely be the rough spot in 2013.  Lohse might end up with a 110 ERA+, and none of the others look like they'll be on the good side of 100.

That Anthony Rizzo projection is fantastic.

Royals JC (Ret)

  • Jon Carney
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Re: Getting ahead of myself...
« Reply #7 on: 12 Nov 2012 1:46:33 PM »
Not related to this discussion exactly...but Minnesota's blog doesn't show up on my portal home page when a new post happens.  Not a huge issue, but is anyone else having that issue, and if so, is it correctable?

Related to your post, the offense is probably better than it looks honestly.  Already you have one more .800 OPS projected player than the Royals :)
Jon Carney - Kansas City Royals GM

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Twins BS

  • Bobby Schmidt
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Re: Twins 2013 Outlook
« Reply #8 on: 28 Mar 2013 4:35:14 PM »
Updated.

Finalized the 25 spots and added some defense.