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I actually almost took Castillo with the #2 overall pick.

If it wasnt for one last cursory look at some peripherals, i would have taken him, instead of Alvarado.

He and Alvarado were nice in the fact that you could get use in 2019, but also were on the prospect side too...so you may get longer returns...


Although shelf life of MRs in DMBO is generally short, and projections fluctuatw wildly.

I ecpect Castillo to be a nice 115-120 Era+ MR for this year, and thats nice.
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Castillo is a very nice pick, not just one of the Top Seven on my list at this point, but he's been in that number for several picks....and only 23 years of age.  If the ZiPS don't smile on your pick, camp him on the reserve roster for a year and allow the projection to wake up.

Castillo probably would have been in my top 5 overall. (Alvarado/McNeil/Astudillo were my clear top 3, then it got a bit murky but Castillo had as good a case for #4 as anyone.) He'll be at least usable for 2019 if you so choose, and he could be a stud going forward.
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Twins will select:

Giovanny Gallegos, RHP, STL

And his sweet Rollie Fingers ZiPS comp.


Lasted about as long as i thought he would adter the projection came out

Yeah, lucky timing. A couple guys I still debated for a quick moment, but figured that kind of projection is too hard to pass up in this draft.
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Castillo is a very nice pick, not just one of the Top Seven on my list at this point, but he's been in that number for several picks....and only 23 years of age.  If the ZiPS don't smile on your pick, camp him on the reserve roster for a year and allow the projection to wake up.
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Sorry for the delay (though it looks like I hurt myself mostly...)

Kansas City selects Jose Castillo, LHP, San Diego
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General Discussion / Re: 2019 ZiPS
« Last post by Dodgers DS on 18 Jan 2019 8:44:38 PM »
The 2019 Cardinals hit the wire this morning...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

Note:  Sometimes (perhaps often) I struggle with fully grasping the projections, this year itís Alex Reyes.  In 2016, Reyes threw 65.1 innings in 14 AAA starts with a 4.96 ERA/1.45 WHIP and registering 93 Ks.  Then he was promoted to MLB, had 12 appearance including 5 starts, with a 1.57 ERA/1.22 WHIP with 52 Ks in 46 IPs.

His 2017 ZiPS projection had a 103 ERA+ and a 1.8 WAR.

In real life, 2017 was a rehab year.  Nevertheless, his 2018 ZiPS included a 105 ERA+ and a 1.4 WAR.

Most of 2018 was again in rehab, but with four late season minor league starts, with one each at A, A+, AA, and AAA, with a composite 0.00 ERA/0.61 WHIP and 44 Ks in 23.0 IPs.

So, of course his 2019 ZiPS projection has sunk to 98 ERA+ and 0.8 WAR.

Itís a progression that fails to make perfect sense to me.
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Had Rodriguez # 1

Larry

His peripherals arenít very good; I think heíll get an unusable projection (like, ERA+ in the 80s)

Scot.


What Scot said....i looked at him hard too, but then firther research showed that he will probably be hard pressed to impact in 2019
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Had Rodriguez # 1

Larry

His peripherals arenít very good; I think heíll get an unusable projection (like, ERA+ in the 80s)

Scot.
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Had Rodriguez # 1

Larry
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