Diamond Mind Baseball Organization

Discussion Boards => General Discussion => Topic started by: Dodgers DS on 7 Dec 2018 12:12:46 PM

Title: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 7 Dec 2018 12:12:46 PM
Leading off for 2019, the Cleveland Indians...https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-cleveland-indians/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-cleveland-indians/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 7 Dec 2018 12:14:00 PM
In the 2 hole, presenting the 2019 Atlanta Braves....https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 10 Dec 2018 10:33:07 AM
In the 2 hole, presenting the 2019 Atlanta Braves....https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/)

The 2019 Boston Red Sox ZiPS have been posted:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/)


Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 26 Dec 2018 3:32:27 PM
Oops boys, I slipped up.  The Phillies were posted on December 20.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/)

And the Diamondbacks came up December 17.   https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-arizona-diamondbacks/ (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-arizona-diamondbacks/)

Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 10 Jan 2019 2:03:18 PM
ZiPS for your 2019 Toronto Blue Jays, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/

Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 14 Jan 2019 11:22:34 AM
After a bit of a hiatus, here are the Texas Rangers...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-texas-rangers/

Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Brewers DG on 14 Jan 2019 4:27:36 PM
The last couple of ZIPS will welcome a couple of new rookies to the SIM Brewers. 

As an aside... I have quite a problem with over-clicking my 2019 Zips bookmark in my toolbar. 
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 16 Jan 2019 9:50:46 AM
ZiPS for the 2019 Kansas City Royals are posted...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-kansas-city-royals/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 18 Jan 2019 9:12:39 AM
The 2019 Cardinals hit the wire this morning...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 18 Jan 2019 8:44:38 PM
The 2019 Cardinals hit the wire this morning...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

Note:  Sometimes (perhaps often) I struggle with fully grasping the projections, this year itís Alex Reyes.  In 2016, Reyes threw 65.1 innings in 14 AAA starts with a 4.96 ERA/1.45 WHIP and registering 93 Ks.  Then he was promoted to MLB, had 12 appearance including 5 starts, with a 1.57 ERA/1.22 WHIP with 52 Ks in 46 IPs.

His 2017 ZiPS projection had a 103 ERA+ and a 1.8 WAR.

In real life, 2017 was a rehab year.  Nevertheless, his 2018 ZiPS included a 105 ERA+ and a 1.4 WAR.

Most of 2018 was again in rehab, but with four late season minor league starts, with one each at A, A+, AA, and AAA, with a composite 0.00 ERA/0.61 WHIP and 44 Ks in 23.0 IPs.

So, of course his 2019 ZiPS projection has sunk to 98 ERA+ and 0.8 WAR.

Itís a progression that fails to make perfect sense to me.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 22 Jan 2019 12:07:17 PM
The 2019 Baltimore Orioles are available at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Yankees CC on 22 Jan 2019 12:34:12 PM
The 2019 Baltimore Orioles are available at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

Given those projections, I suspect most of them are highly available in DMBO as well.  :o
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Marlins JM on 22 Jan 2019 1:56:06 PM
Per Dan...

The 2019 Orioles Zips might be the worst on paper he has ever done
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 24 Jan 2019 1:43:34 PM
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 25 Jan 2019 1:19:50 PM
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-miami-marlins/ (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-miami-marlins/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 28 Jan 2019 1:43:42 PM
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-detroit-tigers/ (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-detroit-tigers/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 30 Jan 2019 10:37:01 AM
NEXT!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/ (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 31 Jan 2019 11:31:10 AM
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-new-york-mets/ (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-new-york-mets/)
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 1 Feb 2019 11:50:31 AM
The Reds have been posted, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-cincinnati-reds/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 4 Feb 2019 9:15:57 AM
Le Buccos, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

I expect we will soon see a corrected table for batters' "Counting Stats" that includes the column initially missed.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 5 Feb 2019 11:53:57 AM
The Angels are up...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 7 Feb 2019 12:51:03 PM
The Philadelphia, errr Kansas City, uh  Oakland Athletics...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-oakland-athletics/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 8 Feb 2019 1:15:34 PM
From the land of sky blue waters, brats, suds, and cheese....https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 11 Feb 2019 11:56:47 AM
The juggernaut formerly known as the Colt 45's...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projection-houston-astros/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 12 Feb 2019 4:05:22 PM
The San Francisco Giants are posted...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-san-francisco-giants/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 13 Feb 2019 11:16:08 AM
Submitted for your consideration, the Tampa Bay Rays...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-tampa-bay-rays/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 14 Feb 2019 1:43:37 PM
The Rockies are now available....https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-colorado-rockies/.

Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 15 Feb 2019 12:41:01 PM
Dan is on quite a roll at present!!  The Nationals are up at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-washington-nationals/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 18 Feb 2019 11:04:01 AM
Öand the Twins are now available...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Pirates LW on 18 Feb 2019 2:43:04 PM
Yay Buxton; +11 on defense with almost a 3.0 WAR over 600AB
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Diamondbacks LL on 18 Feb 2019 5:08:18 PM
Yay Buxton; +11 on defense with almost a 3.0 WAR over 600AB

and an OPS+of 84
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Pirates LW on 18 Feb 2019 6:46:51 PM
absolutely!!. Which makes the 3ish WAR all that more remarkable.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 19 Feb 2019 2:32:39 PM
The New York Yankees are now available public viewing at https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 20 Feb 2019 12:14:41 PM
The Chicago Cubs have been posted...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 21 Feb 2019 9:31:04 AM
And with the posting of the Padres, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/ only one team remains....
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Dodgers DS on 22 Feb 2019 12:42:10 PM
...and then finally, we come complete circle with the Pale Hose, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 27 Mar 2019 8:23:46 AM
Anyone hear anything on when we might see a L/R hitting breakdown or Defensive Ratings list?
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Blue Jays SH on 1 Apr 2019 1:30:14 PM
Anyone hear anything on when we might see a L/R hitting breakdown or Defensive Ratings list?

In his latest chat on Fangraphs, Dan said that he's still working on the defensive ratings, but that the spreadsheet is coming and there will be a projection disk for 2019.

Scot.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Phillies TP on 6 Apr 2019 8:19:34 PM
ZiPS spreadsheet is up:

https://t.co/6LzbeD2w7w

Many thanks to Dan Szymborski for all his hard work!
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 16 Apr 2019 9:39:16 PM
ZiPs disk is out.

Bad news for all the DMB GMs with Othani on their team, though.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Mariners BW on 17 Apr 2019 9:43:32 AM
ZiPs disk is out.

Bad news for all the DMB GMs with Othani on their team, though.
How so?
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Phillies TP on 17 Apr 2019 11:47:37 AM
Ohtani is only rated as a hitter on the disk this year.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Pirates AR on 17 Apr 2019 7:02:26 PM
That is some hefty $/WAR right there.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Mariners BW on 18 Apr 2019 10:18:36 AM
Ohtani is only rated as a hitter on the disk this year.
ZiPS had a projection... nice... that's laughable.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Pirates AR on 18 Apr 2019 5:24:11 PM
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 18 Apr 2019 8:28:54 PM
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

It was Dan's choice, it seems.

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1118324970688524289

As I stated in BNSL... I disagree with it. Ohtani was given a pitching projection on the Angel's ZiPS page, it's still on his FG page, and every other pitcher with TJ has had a projection the following season.  The team playing it safe, shouldn't negate his ability to pitch (even if it would hurt his endurance rating, and the injury itself would hurt his projection since it's already built into ZiPS), just as a team choosing not to put a player at a position doesn't remove his position rating right away. 
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Yankees CC on 25 Apr 2019 10:31:11 AM
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

The problem is that it is wildly inconsistent with past practice to remove Ohtani's pitching projection. Players who are known to be out for the year routinely get projections. And barring a player's demise, there has never to my knowledge been a case where a player gets an official published ZiPS projection but does not have that projection on the season disk. (Defensive ratings aren't part of the projection, they are added solely for the disk).

The whole "Mauer" logic only works if you remove projections for *EVERY* player who you know won't appear at a given position/role in the upcoming year. Arbitrarily leaving e.g. Corey Knebel on the disk while taking away Ohtani's pitching line makes no sense whatsoever.

Maybe I'm just venting because I've been out of commission for two weeks and haven't had a chacne to do so, I dunno. But this seems utterly nuts.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Blue Jays SH on 25 Apr 2019 12:55:26 PM
Was an explicit decision made by Dan and DMB not to include a pitching projection given the real-life situation? If that is the case, then it may be a bummer but is part of the risk in that contract. The ZiPS projection disk is the data of record. The spreadsheet is essentially a draft that may or may not change.

The problem is that it is wildly inconsistent with past practice to remove Ohtani's pitching projection. Players who are known to be out for the year routinely get projections. And barring a player's demise, there has never to my knowledge been a case where a player gets an official published ZiPS projection but does not have that projection on the season disk. (Defensive ratings aren't part of the projection, they are added solely for the disk).

The whole "Mauer" logic only works if you remove projections for *EVERY* player who you know won't appear at a given position/role in the upcoming year. Arbitrarily leaving e.g. Corey Knebel on the disk while taking away Ohtani's pitching line makes no sense whatsoever.

Maybe I'm just venting because I've been out of commission for two weeks and haven't had a chacne to do so, I dunno. But this seems utterly nuts.

FWIW, the EC has been discussing this, and has agreed that we will be manually entering Ohtani's pitching projection into the database (as soon as we figure out how to do it). The fact that Ohtani got a pitching projection when the Angels' Zips were posted means that pretty much everyone expected him to get a pitching projection on the disk.

Scot.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 4 May 2019 11:25:23 PM
We're doing the same in BNSL, but after putting in his projections, splits, etc, and changing him to a dual player... it doesn't seem right.

in ~10 test sims, his BEST ERA was a 6.60 or so, with 5 wins, most he is 7+ ERA with 0 Ws in 33 starts.

any thought from those who are doing the changes here?
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Orioles TK on 5 May 2019 11:15:22 PM
We're doing the same in BNSL, but after putting in his projections, splits, etc, and changing him to a dual player... it doesn't seem right.

in ~10 test sims, his BEST ERA was a 6.60 or so, with 5 wins, most he is 7+ ERA with 0 Ws in 33 starts.

any thought from those who are doing the changes here?

I haven't run any test sims.  It has set in my folder since Tom sent it to me.  Didn't want to mess with it until it was about ready for me to send to everyone.  I've entered everything I can find on Ohtani.  I don't see a starter rating anywhere for him.  Maybe I'm missing it.  What did BSNL use?
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Braves MQ on 5 May 2019 11:25:59 PM
If this is any help, his DMB 2018 season disk starter ratings are:

Durability: Fr
Hold: Vg
Range: Av/66
GB pct: 43
Injury: Prone
Jam: Normal
Wild Pitch: 63
Balk: 29
Percent  Active : 86
Percent DL/Injury: 14
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Orioles TK on 6 May 2019 12:07:58 AM
I've simmed a couple times with the only modification is putting Ohtani in Seattles rotation and the additions I've made to him as a pitcher.  He has been terrible. I'm not sure what I'm leaving out. I've got everything in I can find on him.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 6 May 2019 3:27:59 AM
I've simmed a couple times with the only modification is putting Ohtani in Seattles rotation and the additions I've made to him as a pitcher.  He has been terrible. I'm not sure what I'm leaving out. I've got everything in I can find on him.

This is the problem I'm having. The's absolutely terrible... Now, I've created a new player, and his general performance is good, but somehow his K/9 ends up around 17 every single season.. and that's just silly.

If this is any help, his DMB 2018 season disk starter ratings are:

Durability: Fr
Hold: Vg
Range: Av/66
GB pct: 43
Injury: Prone
Jam: Normal
Wild Pitch: 63
Balk: 29
Percent  Active : 86
Percent DL/Injury: 14

his ratings and things are listed in the ZiPS spreadsheet (PR sp rating, PR hold, etc.) So he's easy to modify, it's just not working as intended.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Orioles TK on 6 May 2019 12:45:18 PM
Yeah, I forgot about the spreadsheets but put them in last night. Latest sim has him with era over 7 and a 2-20 record
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Phillies TP on 6 May 2019 1:59:15 PM
Yeah, I forgot about the spreadsheets but put them in last night. Latest sim has him with era over 7 and a 2-20 record

Is his primary position listed as SP? Otherwise the game may think heís a position player on the mound and thus not use the pitching stats at all since most position players donít pitch enough to have a statistically valid basis for a ďcard.Ē Pure speculation but worth a look.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Braves MQ on 6 May 2019 5:32:18 PM
There is a selection for a "dual" role to allow for use at both positions. It does ask for a primary position identification even when "dual" is selected.

I am in a league that is using the 2018 season disk and he is being used as a SP and DH and his stats so far are reasonable.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 6 May 2019 7:47:30 PM
the 2018 projection AND season disks should be fine for him, as they were created and compiled with him as a dual player.

I have tried making his main position SP, etc. The only thing that gives him a realistic general performance, is creating him from scratch (but that changes his ID, though not UID and gstats ID). The problem is some weird thing where every single season, he has ungodly K/9 rates, even with his ERA being totally normal.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Pirates AR on 7 May 2019 6:38:41 PM
What is Plan B in the BNSL if Ohtani ends up with jacked up sim results in test runs? I ask because I think the DMBO needs to start thinking along these lines, too. If we cannot get reasonable results in sim test runs from a manually-generated profile, then surely the league cannot allow his use as a dual player. Right? For example, Seattle could be provided with options that allow the club to try to compete without using Ohtani as a dual player.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Twins BS on 7 May 2019 11:17:13 PM
We're in the same boat... as we don't necessarily have a Plan B.. or C.

BUT... we think we may have found the solution. I'm going to run a few more test sims, but so far so good.

Add Ohtani's pitching Real-Life (projection) Stats and Pitching Splits from the spreadsheet, along with the endurance, hld, walk, balk, etc ratings.

THEN, change him to dual player, and primary position SP.

THEN, Modify > Pitching Event Table > (it seems changing creation to Left/right works best) Okay > Okay

And that, should do it. Apparently, opening and confirming the event table pulls in his stats from the Real Life stats entry? Maybe, I don't know why it works, but it seems to. I'll let you know if tests show otherwise, but in 4 or 5 sims, he seems okay (high 3 and low 4 ERA, 11 to 12K per 9).  Let me know if it works, or doesn't even more so, for you, please!
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Orioles TK on 8 May 2019 11:28:59 AM
Okay, I think that will do it.  I just ran four sims looking at what Ohtani did pitching as the 3rd SP for Seattle.
11-5, 2.79 era, 12.1 K/9, 177 IP
8-14, 4.41 era, 10.1 K/9, 181 IP
10-12, 3.59 era, 11.4 K/9, 175 IP
9-6, 2.26 era, 10.9 K/9, 179 IP

I think we are good to go with Ohtani.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Angels PH on 8 May 2019 12:22:24 PM
Being in the same division as him I thing I like the other outcomes better. 😁

All kidding aside this was great work to get it fixed.
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Mariners BW on 9 May 2019 8:54:20 AM
I appreciate the efforts.
Thanks,
Bill
Title: Re: 2019 ZiPS
Post by: Athletics GAT on 9 May 2019 10:18:05 AM
Being in the same division as him I thing I like the other outcomes better. 😁

All kidding aside this was great work to get it fixed.

Agreed!  :D