Diamond Mind Baseball Organization

Discussion Boards => Club Blogs => NYY => Topic started by: Yankees CC on 4 Sep 2018 8:14:50 PM

Title: Early Look at 2019
Post by: Yankees CC on 4 Sep 2018 8:14:50 PM
Barring an epic collapse (we're 14 games up on the second WC with 19 to go), the Yankees look likely to break their playoff drought this season. The good news (at least if you’re a Yankees fan) is that this does not appear to be a one-and-done run. Instead, the Yankees are already looking at a strong roster for 2019 before trading season and free agency even get rolling. Here's a sneak peak based on the current roster.

(Note: All numbers 2018 ZiPS ROS projections unless noted -- I use Steamer for guys who spent most of 2018 in the minors since ZiPS ROS only looks at MLB stats.)

SP Corey Kluber (3.08 ERA/2.96 FIP)
SP Trevor Bauer (3.37 ERA/3.23 FIP)
SP Masahiro Tanaka (3.90 ERA/3.89 FIP)
SP Brent Honeywell (4.12 ERA/4.17 FIP)
SP Nathan Eovaldi (4.47 ERA/4.11 FIP)

At this point last year, Honeywell was the only guy on the roster pencilled into a rotation slot (though Eovaldi wound up with one for much of the season). Things look a little different heading into 2019. Kluber and Bauer are two of the best in the business and will make a very nice 1-2 punch. Tanaka is a useful mid-rotation arm despite giving up bushels of HR, and Eovaldi took a step forward and likely has a stronger claim to a job than a year ago. Honeywell could be a back-end piece as well, though if his projection takes a hit from TJ he’ll probably wind up in the minors saving service time while we fill the last spot via trade or FA.

CL ?
SU ?
SU ?
MR Josh Fields (3.59 ERA/3.23 FIP)
MR Phil Maton (3.51 ERA/3.42 FIP)
MR Xavier Cedeno (4.01 ERA/3.64 FIP)
MR ?

Hey, that’s like two more likely relievers than we had at the start of the 2018 offseason! And obviously the Yankees haven’t gotten the message that an elite team needs an elite bullpen, since even after trade additions this year’s version is only slightly north of mediocre. We’ll still look for upgrades as the offseason rolls along, and quite possibly long after that.

C Robinson Chirinos (104 wRC+)
1B Cody Bellinger (132 wRC+)
2B Zack Cozart (99 wRC+)
3B Adrian Beltre (104 wRC+)
SS Francisco Lindor (128 wRC+)
LF Joey Gallo (115 wRC+)
CF Manuel Margot (94 wRC+)
RF Ronald Acuna (121 wRC+)
DH ?

Bellinger, Lindor and Acuna should headline an above-average offense, but it’s with the glove that this lineup is expected to really shine. On that note, Cozart’s job is dependent on how ZiPS handles his defensive ratings (his metrics at 2B were pretty poor this year) as well as how Urias and Rengifo project. We’ll be looking for a DH (or possibly LF or even 1B) with Bauers cooling off to finish the season and the next wave of OF prospects still a couple of years away. Everyone else is at least average overall, mostly better.

C Danny Jansen (102 wRC+ per Steamer)
IF Luis Rengifo (82 wRC+ per Steamer)
OF Andrew Toles (94 wRC+)
UT Nick Delmonico (101 wRC+)

Jansen would be one of the better catchers in the league, so having him on the bench is kind of silly. The more likely outcome is that Chirinos finds a new home and Jansen lands the starting job, in which case Jacob Nottingham would likely slide into the backup gig. Rengifo likely isn’t the best backup IF candidate on the farm, but he’s the one whom I don’t mind spending a year of service time in a backup role, and his speed-and-defense combination is useful off the bench. Delmonico may once again be just good enough to not really be worth replacing as the last man on the bench.

After last year’s spending spree, the Yankees are looking at a payroll in the ~$150M range for next year -- but about $37M will be covered by cash incoming from trades and we’ll roll over another $9M or so from this season, putting our net payroll at more like $105M. Meanwhile, this year’s $148M base revenue will presumably be going up given the dramatic on-field improvement this year. All told, the Yankees aren’t going to be buying half a roster in FA next season, but we could still be players in Tier 1 and/or Tier 2 if someone catches our eye -- assuming we don't just spend it on buying more draft picks first, of course...

Chirinos and Cozart are the most likely major league assets to hit the road, though we won’t hesitate to move others if the right deal comes along. As for our minor league system, if the right offer came along to help sort out our middle infield logjam, we’d have to consider it, but “too many star-caliber SS” is not a problem that I am terribly worried about in the long run.  ::)
Title: Re: Early Look at 2019
Post by: Marlins JM on 8 Sep 2018 12:00:35 PM
Oh sure...

Rub it in.
Title: Re: Early Look at 2019
Post by: Yankees CC on 8 Sep 2018 9:25:14 PM
Oh sure...

Rub it in.

I haven't even gotten around to the farm system overview yet...  ;)
Title: Re: Early Look at 2019
Post by: Marlins JM on 8 Sep 2018 10:30:59 PM
Oh sure...

Rub it in.

I haven't even gotten around to the farm system overview yet...  ;)

I hate your head.